1. Gold has surged by ~12% YTD, making it one of the best-performing asset classes; 2. Its outperformance can be attributed to its hedge quality against inflation and geopolitical risks; 3. The article discusses the main factors contributing to the rally and future expectations.
Recent #Market Trends news in the semiconductor industry
➀ The 2024 Mobile Core Network (MCN) market fell by 4% year-on-year, with a 15% decline in the Chinese market for the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Dell’Oro.
➁ The market has struggled to gain traction in the last three years, with three of the four quarters having flat or negative Y/Y growth rates.
➂ For 2024, the lowest Y/Y growth rate was -4 percent, but the results were not balanced across the technologies tracked.
➀ The RTX 5070 Ti is experiencing price markup at retailers despite an MSRP of $750; ➁ Some versions are being sold for over $1000; ➂ Nvidia's MSRP examples are being marked up, leading to confusion.
1. Apple's recent earnings show a 1% YoY decline in iPhone sales, reflecting a lack of excitement for the new iPhone. 2. Greater China revenue has shown a 11% YoY decline, following a 13% YoY decline in the previous quarter. 3. Apple's revenue base has grown by a cumulative 2% over the last three years, while its stock price has increased by over 30%, leading to a higher PE multiple compared to peers like Meta and Alphabet.
1. Super Micro Computer's stock has shown a remarkable recovery since the pre-earnings update; 2. The market has shifted focus to Blackwell production, taking attention away from delayed regulatory filings; 3. Despite facing compliance challenges with Nasdaq listing requirements, the potential for outperformance through 2026 suggests the stock is undervalued.
1. Reddit's stock dropped 15% after earnings despite strong results, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors. 2. Q4 2024 revenues reached $428 million, a 71% increase, surpassing street estimates. 3. Current quarter guidance is above expectations, and RDDT's improving financials suggest potential S&P 500 inclusion.
➀ The SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) reported that 2024 silicon wafer shipments fell 2.7% to 12,266 million square inches and wafer revenue contracted 6.5% to $11.5 billion.
➁ Demand for silicon wafers in the second half of 2024 started to recover from the industry downcycle seen in 2023, and is expected to continue into 2025.
➂ Generative AI and new data-center construction are driving demand for advanced foundry and memory devices like HBM, while most other markets are still recovering from excess inventory.
1. The S&P 500 ended the session fine despite a hot inflation report, with Treasury yields edging down. 2. Analysts discuss the developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, including President Trump's proposal to take over Gaza and peace plan discussions. 3. Concerns grow in Europe about reconstruction in Ukraine and the need for troops or non-NATO peacekeeping forces.
1. The rise of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI app, has caused disruption in the tech industry. 2. Twilio's stock price has outperformed Apple's by nearly 170% over the past six months. 3. Despite strong performance, Apple is rated 'Hold' while Twilio is rated 'Strong Buy' based on Seeking Alpha's Quant Factor Grades. 4. The article discusses the impact of Apple's premium valuation on its Quant rating and compares it with Twilio.
1. The article discusses the potential for outperformance in industrials, energy, and transportation sectors due to improving indicators and global growth; 2. The author is positioning their portfolio for this shift by adding to railroads, machinery, and energy stocks; 3. The author acknowledges risks such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, or economic slowdowns but believes the risk/reward is favorable.
1. The US 10-year yield finally broke below 4.5%; 2. The Trump administration aims to lower rates through lower inflation and fiscal deficit; 3. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bp.
1. Palantir's stock is valued at 115x forward free cash flow, but its exceptional growth and AI capabilities justify a bullish outlook. 2. The company's Q4 earnings report was strong, with commercial revenues up 64% y/y, demonstrating its ability to turn AI into actionable insights. 3. Palantir's balance sheet is robust, with $5.2 billion in cash and no debt, supporting its high valuation despite competitive risks.
1. The author downgrades JEPQ to a Hold due to better tax advantages, consistent distributions, and stronger total returns offered by other NASDAQ 100 income funds. 2. JEPQ's distributions are taxed as ordinary income, unlike funds like QQQI and GPIQ that use tax-loss harvesting for more tax-efficient returns. 3. The introduction of 0DTE funds has provided alternatives with higher yields and stronger upside capture in the NASDAQ 100.
1. Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter; 2. Despite solid deliveries and production growth, the stock remains overvalued; 3. BYD surpassed Tesla in global BEV deliveries and has a stronger gross margin profile; 4. The potential slowdown in EV adoption poses a significant risk to Tesla's ambitious delivery targets; 5. Tesla's mixed earnings report and high valuation make it an unattractive investment.
1. The U.S. stock market closed January with a nearly 3% advance despite a 1% retreat on the last trading day of the month. 2. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's low-cost language model posed a challenge to U.S. tech giants. 3. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady after three consecutive cuts raised inflation concerns. 4. The Q4 earnings season saw major tech companies reporting results.
➀ DeepSeek's AI package offers local, high-performance capabilities; ➁ Concerns over Nvidia's high-end AI chip demand; ➂ Silverstone's shift towards AI-driven tasks; ➃ The rise of local AI systems and their implications for hardware markets.
1. Palantir's stock is overvalued and detached from reality; 2. The rise of macroeconomic risks could lead to a loss of growth momentum; 3. The company's stock has significant downside potential.
1. GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT) stock has dropped around 30% in the past six months; 2. The stock's technicals are net bearish, indicating a buying opportunity; 3. GCT's Q3 earnings results were strong, with revenue growth and EPS at their highest levels in three years; 4. The stock appears undervalued based on P/S and P/E ratios.
1. Nvidia Corporation is facing pressure due to DeepSeek's claims of cheaper AI model training; 2. DeepSeek's R1 model claims to outperform OpenAI at a fraction of the cost; 3. Nvidia's stock drop presents a buying opportunity with AI demand likely to grow despite potential margin risks.
1. The S&P 500 index reached a new record high, driven by U.S. President Trump's inauguration and strong earnings reports. 2. Trump signed several executive orders reversing policies from the Biden administration. 3. The focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year.