1. Market tension rises as the Fed's September rate cut decision depends on an unreliable August jobs report; 2. Labor data inconsistencies, including large revisions and conflicting signals, obscure the true health of the job market; 3. Demographic changes and reporting flaws may understate unemployment, indicating a weaker labor market than official figures suggest.

1. The Federal Reserve injected over $11B into the overnight repo market on June 30, marking its largest intervention since 2019; 2. The move suggests banks required liquidity to maintain balance sheet health, potentially signaling low liquidity conditions; 3. While significant, the action alone is unlikely to drive interest rates lower unless broader systemic cracks emerge.

1. Markets focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and updated economic projections amid geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran; 2. Oil and gold prices are monitored as Middle East conflicts escalate; 3. Key economic data, including U.S. retail sales and housing starts, alongside earnings reports from companies like Lennar and Accenture, will drive investor sentiment.

1. Inflation is projected to exceed 3% by late 2025, reverting to its post-2022 growth trajectory; 2. Market indicators such as CPI swaps and price-paid indexes signal rising inflation pressures, with headline CPI expected at 2.4% and core CPI at 2.9% year-over-year; 3. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon due to persistent inflation and neutral real rates, making current market expectations for cuts premature.

1. Wall Street shifts focus to June after a strong May rally, with key economic data including jobs reports and Fed Chair Powell's speech; 2. Major earnings reports from companies like CrowdStrike, HPE, and Broadcom are scheduled; 3. Additional highlights include market updates, podcast availability, and summaries of recent stock movements.

1. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%–4.50% during the May FOMC meeting; 2. The Fed highlighted stable labor market conditions, sideways inflation trends, and anchored long-term inflation expectations; 3. Chair Powell emphasized patience in assessing trade policy impacts, citing low costs of delayed monetary action.

1. The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% amid economic uncertainty, adopting a 'wait and see' approach; 2. Mixed economic data, political pressure from former President Trump, and market volatility complicate policy decisions; 3. Markets react to Fed's stance, trade developments, and geopolitical tensions, with equities recovering partially from earlier losses.

1. The Fed is about to make its second policy error in as many meetings; 2. The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps; 3. This may lead to tighter financial conditions.

1. Fed Chair Powell signals policy adjustments are needed, emphasizing concerns about labor market weakness. 2. Markets are pricing in a 34.5% chance of a 50 bps cut and 65.5% of a 25 bps cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. 3. US PCE and EU Inflation data are the highlights.

1. The Wall Street Journal cautions the Fed against lowering interest rates before the presidential election due to potential political implications. 2. The Fed continues to reduce its securities portfolio, indicating confidence in the banking system's liquidity. 3. The M2 money stock remains robust, suggesting ample liquidity in the economy despite the Fed's quantitative tightening.

1. AGNC reported slightly weaker than expected Q2'24 results, but its spread profile is improving due to growing interest income. 2. Inflation is moderating, and the Fed is nearing its 'pivot point', which could benefit AGNC's mortgage-backed securities portfolio. 3. Shares now trade at a 17% premium to the REIT's longer term (3-year) price-to-book ratio, suggesting a hold rating is appropriate for now.

1. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate, with indications of potential easing in September. 2. Major tech companies including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release earnings reports. 3. Attention will focus on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July.

1. Inflation easing may lead to a faster Fed pivot, benefiting PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund. 2. The fund has shifted to overweight high-yield credit since March. 3. Potential rate cuts could expand the price differential between net asset value and market price.