1. Recent market volatility may cause investors anxiety and affect their long-term returns; 2. The S&P 500 returned 26.3% and 25% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, ranking in the top 79th and 77th percentiles since 1928; 3. There may be several reasons to expect an increase in market volatility.

1. The S&P 500 reached two new record highs but also experienced its worst day of the year within the same week. 2. The index is now 2.13% below its record close from February 19th, 2025, and is up 2.46% year-to-date. 3. The U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.42% and the 2-year note at 4.19% as of February 21st.

1. Seven of the S&P 500's 11 sectors are expected to see cumulative year-over-year growth in normalized earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2024. 2. The communication services sector is forecast to record the largest cumulative year-over-year EPS gain, with a 23.8% increase in the fourth quarter. 3. The real estate sector is expected to see the second-largest year-over-year EPS increase, recovering from a 0.1% decrease in the third quarter.

1. Sentiment has shifted bullish, with analysts predicting higher S&P500 targets. 2. Economic growth is modest at 2.1%, driven by lower taxes and margins, but high valuations limit upside potential. 3. Technical analysis indicates a likely correction with a target of 5100 in H1 2025.

1. Despite the U.S. economy's resilience, the S&P 500's heavy reliance on international revenues poses significant risks. 2. China's real estate crisis and trade tensions threaten key S&P 500 companies. 3. Europe's economic troubles and political instability could weaken the euro, affecting U.S. exports and S&P 500 companies' revenues. 4. The high valuation of the S&P 500 and potential global economic headwinds suggest a conservative EPS growth rate and a possible 12% decline in 2025.

1. The S&P 500 Index has seen strong returns in 2023 and 2024, with earnings growth in the low to mid-teens percentage range. 2. The index return has outpaced earnings growth, leading to stretched market valuations. 3. Mega cap stocks have seen extended valuations, but the market excluding the top 10 is not as elevated.

1. The S&P 500 has experienced a modest decline in recent days, coinciding with a significant downturn in investor sentiment. 2. The AAII weekly sentiment survey shows that only 37.7% of respondents are bullish this week, with bears accounting for 29.9%. 3. This shift in sentiment is a notable change from the recent low of 20.6% two weeks ago.

1. The energy and basic materials sectors are expected to be a drag for 2024, with a full-year decline in expected sector growth; 2. The expected 2025 S&P 500 EPS growth rate remains stable at 14-15%; 3. The credit markets show no signs of an impending recession.

1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are cautiously trading ahead of Nvidia's earnings and US PCE data. 2. Nvidia's earnings could significantly impact the AI sector and set the market tone for the coming weeks. 3. Technically, the S&P 500 is nearing all-time highs, with Nvidia potentially acting as a catalyst for new highs.