1. The Federal Reserve is set to deliver its second interest rate decision of the year, with markets expecting rates to remain steady. 2. Investors will focus on the updated dot plot and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into the Fed's growth projections and tariff stance. 3. Key earnings reports from Nike and FedEx are expected, along with a busy week of housing market data.

1. The author has been bullish for over two years, expecting a soft economic landing and a neutral Fed rate. 2. Consumer sentiment has dropped due to fears of tariffs and inflation. 3. The S&P Global's PMI indicates a sharp decline in service sector activity, suggesting GDP growth of just 0.6% for February.

1. Sentiment has shifted bullish, with analysts predicting higher S&P500 targets. 2. Economic growth is modest at 2.1%, driven by lower taxes and margins, but high valuations limit upside potential. 3. Technical analysis indicates a likely correction with a target of 5100 in H1 2025.

1. Caterpillar's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic cycles; 2. Construction spending has remained stagnant due to higher borrowing costs and cost inflation; 3. Infrastructure investments are expected to slow in 2025; 4. Caterpillar's profit margins are at a high level, indicating potential profit decline if the heavy equipment shortage reverses; 5. Long-term infrastructure needs are significant, but immediate economic trends suggest a potential decline for CAT in 2025.

1. Stock market fundamentals are solid but weakening, especially in terms of liquidity. 2. Most long-term sentiment and position measures are at their maximum. 3. The market is priced for perfection from a fundamental perspective. 4. If economic data and corporate earnings disappoint and global liquidity continues to decline, significant market volatility could occur. 5. Short-term market strength suggests a final rally before a more volatile 2025. 6. Evidence indicates 2025 will be a challenging year for equities.

1. Despite the U.S. economy's resilience, the S&P 500's heavy reliance on international revenues poses significant risks. 2. China's real estate crisis and trade tensions threaten key S&P 500 companies. 3. Europe's economic troubles and political instability could weaken the euro, affecting U.S. exports and S&P 500 companies' revenues. 4. The high valuation of the S&P 500 and potential global economic headwinds suggest a conservative EPS growth rate and a possible 12% decline in 2025.

1. The S&P 500 is expected to grow in 2025 with a projected 8.7% increase by year-end; 2. Current market valuations are high due to a 75% surge in corporate earnings post-pandemic; 3. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are stimulating economic growth, but risks include potential inflation reversals and the loss of excess liquidity.

1) The S&P 500's market cap is heavily weighted towards technology and financial sectors; 2) Credit spreads are approaching historic lows; 3) Treasury yields are near critical support levels.

1. The U.S. faces structurally high fiscal deficits due to unbalanced Social Security, inefficient healthcare spending, foreign adventurism, accumulated debt interest, and political polarization; 2. Investment implications suggest favoring equities and scarce assets over bonds, with defensive positions in T-bills, gold, and inflation-protected Treasury notes; 3. Fiscal dominance is likely to lead to persistent inflation, asset price volatility, and potential stagflation, making traditional recession indicators less reliable.

1. The energy and basic materials sectors are expected to be a drag for 2024, with a full-year decline in expected sector growth; 2. The expected 2025 S&P 500 EPS growth rate remains stable at 14-15%; 3. The credit markets show no signs of an impending recession.

1. The current political/geopolitical environment is stagflationary, with early signs of stagflation in the data; 2. The September CPI report was 'hot', indicating weakness in the labor market; 3. The S&P500 is overvalued with optimistic earnings growth estimates, facing a bust and bear market.

1. The CPI report gains importance after a stronger-than-expected job report; 2. Analysts predict a slight decrease in inflation rates; 3. The CPI swaps market anticipates higher inflation than analysts; 4. Equity market reactions hinge on implied volatility; 5. Potential short-term stock price increases post-CPI report.

1. The central bank cut the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) and reduced its forward rate projections. 2. The new median projection indicates the policy rate will end 2025 in the range of 3.25%–3.5%, 150 bps lower than the current range. 3. The Fed's actions suggest a shift in the balance of risks around inflation and employment, justifying a faster adjustment towards neutral than previously thought.

1. The belief that interest rate reductions will benefit BAC is flawed; 2. The bank is facing challenges from increasing non-performing real estate loans; 3. Upcoming property tax hikes in key markets like New York and California will further strain the CRE sector.

1. The article discusses the impact of inflation and economic data on the market, highlighting the Fed's potential interest rate cut and the upcoming election's influence on market sentiment. 2. It analyzes the resilience of corporate earnings and the potential for market volatility due to seasonal patterns and economic uncertainty. 3. The author emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies amidst short-term market fluctuations.

1. The market has scaled back the odds of a 50bp cut at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting after the US jobs report and Fed speak. 2. The dollar is correcting higher after falling sharply in August. 3. The ECB is expected to cut rates again this month (September).

1. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 1.5 points to 67.9 in August, marking the first rise in five months. 2. Both short-term and long-term economic outlooks improved, reaching their most favorable levels since April 2024. 3. The sentiment among Independents slightly rose, while Democrats and Republicans showed opposite trends.