1. Despite the U.S. economy's resilience, the S&P 500's heavy reliance on international revenues poses significant risks. 2. China's real estate crisis and trade tensions threaten key S&P 500 companies. 3. Europe's economic troubles and political instability could weaken the euro, affecting U.S. exports and S&P 500 companies' revenues. 4. The high valuation of the S&P 500 and potential global economic headwinds suggest a conservative EPS growth rate and a possible 12% decline in 2025.