1. Weak manufacturing PMIs and a declining Leading Economic Index signal an economic slowdown, potentially limiting Energy Transfer's volume growth; 2. Ethane export restrictions to China are deemed unlikely to significantly affect Energy Transfer; 3. The Lake Charles LNG export project shows strong economics with ~20% ROI, offering upside potential, while ET's valuation appears near fair value and technical indicators suggest weakening momentum against the SPX500.

1. The author argues the S&P 500's rally is unsustainable due to high valuations and economic risks like rising interest rates and tariffs. 2. Long-term Treasury yields above 4.5% could trigger a stock market reversal, favoring bonds. 3. Tariffs are criticized as a regressive tax and ineffective deficit solution, further pressuring growth.

1. The turbulence in the bond market likely activated the Trump Put and possibly the Fed Put; 2. The S&P500's Monday low is likely to hold until the labor market weakens; 3. The stock market is expected to remain volatile with upside risk until a clear indication of an imminent recession appears.

1. The S&P 500 managed to end a four-week losing streak with a slight increase. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and Jerome Powell's comments on inflation were key factors. 2. FedEx, Micron Technology, and Nike reported their quarterly results, with FedEx cutting its annual revenue guidance for the third consecutive quarter. 3. The S&P 500 advanced +0.5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added +0.2%.

1. Multiple drivers of uncertainty, including inflation, tariffs, and recession fears, have created a challenging environment for investors. 2. Despite the S&P 500's Y/Y earnings growth, it is down 3.5% YTD. 3. History suggests that stocks with strong fundamentals often lead recoveries after market pullbacks. 4. SA Quant's top 2025 stocks have reported positive earnings surprises, indicating excellent fundamentals and market leadership potential.

1. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech are under close watch. 2. Economists expect 160,000 jobs to be added in February, with unemployment at 4.0%. 3. Concerns over the impact of recent policies and global trade uncertainty are highlighted.

1. Despite a 5% pullback from its all-time high, the S&P 500 remains up 1.2% this year, yet investor sentiment has plummeted. 2. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has plunged into Extreme Fear territory, and the percentage of bears has risen to a multi-year high. 3. Economic indicators show signs of strain with disappointing retail sales, a contracting service sector PMI, and a significant increase in the trade deficit.

1. The S&P 500 ended its two-week decline, closing up 1.5% from the previous Friday. 2. As of February 14th, the U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.47% and the 2-year note at 4.26%. 3. The S&P 500 is currently up 4.19% year-to-date.

1. The market experienced volatility with the 'fear gauge' rising as China's DeepSeek AI challenges Western AI models. 2. Despite early-week dips, indices recovered, with the Nasdaq up 2.66%, S&P 500 up 1.62%, and the Dow up 1.34%. 3. US Treasury yields remained stable, and the Fed held rates, while U.S. GDP growth was slower than expected and PCE rose 2.3% Q/Q.

1. The S&P 500 experienced a volatile week with a 1.0% loss from the previous Friday; 2. The U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.58% and the 2-year note at 4.22%; 3. Volatility was driven by major developments including the DeepSeek threat, the Federal Reserve's decision, big tech earnings, and renewed uncertainty.

1. The Fed's dovish rate cuts have led to rising manufacturing and services prices, with inflation expected to increase further over the next six months; 2. January's data indicates accelerating inflation, complicating the Fed's 2% inflation target; 3. The market expects only one rate cut in 2025, and Powell should push back on early rate cuts.

1. The stock market is a leading economic indicator, driven more by investor emotions than economic data; 2. Current levels of extreme bullish sentiment and distinct Elliott Wave patterns suggest a longer-term corrective pattern is underway; 3. Historical parallels, such as the 1968-74 stock market, indicate a significant market downturn is expected; 4. The recommended asset allocation is consistent with the expectation of a major correction, possibly ending in early 2026.

1. The market has struggled over the last two weeks due to rising bond yields and fears of inflation and tariffs. 2. The CPI report showed a 0.4% increase, with core CPI at 0.2%. 3. The decline in wages impacts the growth rate of PCE.

1. The S&P 500 ended a 5-day losing streak but still closed the week with a loss of 0.48% from the previous Friday. 2. The index is currently 2.43% below its record close from December 6th, 2024, and is up 1.26% year-to-date. 3. The U.S. Treasury's 10-year note yield closed at 4.60% on January 3rd, which is above its record low.

1. The Santa Claus Market Rally began on Christmas Eve, with significant gains across major indices. 2. Post-holiday, there was a rise in 10-year Treasury yield and a decline in futures. 3. Retail spending exceeded expectations, and jobless claims fell. 4. Russia's missile attack on Ukraine raised concerns over energy security and geopolitical tensions. 5. Crypto trends remained in focus, but Bitcoin experienced a slide.

1. The Fed shifts focus back to inflation this week with the release of the November consumer price index; 2. Economic expectations for a 0.3% rise in both headline and core CPI; 3. The article highlights upcoming earnings reports from major companies and financial conferences.

1. Alternative economic indicators like construction, advertising, and gaming revenue suggest a positive outlook for the U.S. economy and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. 2. The Fear and Greed Index at 57 indicates positive sentiment. 3. S&P 500's Q3 2024 earnings and revenue growth, along with a forecast for 15% earnings growth in 2025, boost confidence. Despite risks, the author predicts SPY will rise at least 10% by 2025.

1. Black Friday led to a significant increase in consumer spending, driven by aggressive marketing and online deals. 2. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% M/M in October, matching expectations. 3. Proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada could impact key industries and cross-border supply chains.

1. The DOW surged over 570 points following NVIDIA's strong Q3 2025 earnings; 2. Bitcoin reached $99,000 as investors anticipate a $100k milestone; 3. The U.S. Department of Justice proposed breaking up Google and selling its Chrome browser to combat monopolization.

1. There may be another explanation for the weakness in the US Treasury 10-year note prices, i.e., interest rates rising, and it is not fear of renewed inflation; 2. Flight-to-safety buyers may be feeling safer, willing to take on more risk; 3. Higher rates are a sign of a strong economy.