1. The article warns that the Trump administration is ignoring critical market signals (e.g., Fed rate cuts, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar) that indicate potential economic turmoil; 2. It draws parallels between economic warning signs and volcanic precursors, urging proactive policy adjustments; 3. The author argues for scaling back aggressive tariffs and tax cuts to mitigate economic risks.

1. The Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% amid economic uncertainty, adopting a 'wait and see' approach; 2. Mixed economic data, political pressure from former President Trump, and market volatility complicate policy decisions; 3. Markets react to Fed's stance, trade developments, and geopolitical tensions, with equities recovering partially from earlier losses.

1. The US-China trade war revolves around the dollar/renminbi exchange rate, with China's massive USD debt creating systemic risks; 2. A strong dollar exacerbates China's vulnerabilities, pressuring USD debt servicing and risking capital flight; 3. Tariffs are used as geopolitical bargaining chips, with the US leveraging dollar strength to gain trade concessions; 4. A grand macro bargain involves a weaker dollar to relieve China's financial strain, boosting global liquidity and benefiting both nations.

1. The Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the U.S. economy's solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the 2% goal. 2. He advises patience in monitoring policy changes and their effects. 3. The article highlights the importance of not panicking in the face of market corrections.

1. The Fed faces challenges in 2025 due to Trump administration policies, rising inflation expectations, and shifting market rate cut predictions. 2. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025 have increased. 3. Economic uncertainty and surging inflation may hinder the Fed's ability to signal further rate cuts, potentially leaving projections unchanged.

1. Major U.S. indices showed mixed activity, with the Nasdaq falling over 2% and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 declining above 1.75%. 2. President Trump's proposed tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports dominated market sentiment, raising concerns about a trade war and supply chain disruptions. 3. Corporate news included Alibaba's 10% surge after strong Q3 earnings and Walmart facing scrutiny over potential Chinese tariff exposure. 4. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.57% as Fed minutes highlighted inflation risks from tariffs. 5. Bitcoin soared above $97,300 as crypto ETFs gained institutional investor interest.

1. The US 10-year yield finally broke below 4.5%; 2. The Trump administration aims to lower rates through lower inflation and fiscal deficit; 3. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bp.

1. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to take a pause after cutting rates since September. 2. Investors are focusing on the Federal Reserve's signaling for future policy. 3. The debate is whether the Fed will cut rates again this year, with market pricing indicating a high probability of at least one cut.

1. The S&P 500 index reached a new record high, driven by U.S. President Trump's inauguration and strong earnings reports. 2. Trump signed several executive orders reversing policies from the Biden administration. 3. The focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year.

1. US stocks and gold had a strong week, with the S&P 500 rising about 3%; 2. Markets are preparing for potential volatility and policy surprises with Donald Trump's inauguration; 3. The Bank of Japan's meeting on January 24th is a key event with a potential interest rate hike.

1. The 2025 markets are experiencing pressure due to the Fed's monetary policy shift; 2. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell on Friday; 3. The global bond selloff pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.74%; 4. Bitcoin's selloff continued despite crypto trends remaining in focus; 5. Tariff threats are intensifying global tensions.

1. President-elect Trump's policies are expected to favor the American midstream industry by reducing regulations and increasing domestic output; 2. Energy Transfer LP stands to benefit significantly from these policy changes, making it a high-yielding, undervalued investment with strong growth potential; 3. ET has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly, reinforcing its 'Strong Buy' rating and promising both income and growth opportunities.

1. The S&P 500 index ended lower for the holiday-shortened week as Wall Street's bull run lost some steam. 2. The S&P 500 posted a massive advance of +23.31% for the year, marking the first time since 1998 that it delivered back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%. 3. Tesla garnered attention with a Cybertruck explosion and its first annual fall in deliveries. 4. The S&P 500 slipped -0.5% for the week, while the Dow and Nasdaq also fell slightly.

1. The Federal Reserve's rate cut will support markets but keep inflation above the 2% target; 2. The decision to cut rates is puzzling given persistent inflation above the 2% goal; 3. The Fed's board member warns of the risks of prolonged inflation.

1. The U.S. debt ceiling issue is causing market turmoil and potential government shutdown; 2. The debate over the debt ceiling is politically charged, with President-elect Trump expressing support for its abolition; 3. The existence of the debt ceiling dates back to 1917 and is meant to ensure legislative control over government spending.

1. The Fed has cut rates by 25bp, bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 100bp. 2. The Fed's updated projections and Chair Powell's press conference indicate a more cautious approach next year. 3. Sticky inflation and President Trump's policy mix suggest a higher hurdle for rate cuts in 2025.

1. The Fed's rate cut decision could significantly impact interest rates, the dollar, and the bond market, with equities also affected over time. 2. Despite recent inflation data, there is a near 100% chance for a 25 bps rate cut, but the Fed should be cautious given rising inflation expectations. 3. If the Fed cuts rates, it should be the last cut unless inflation drops; otherwise, higher 10-year rates and a stronger dollar are expected.

1. The year is winding down, but the market remains busy with central bank decisions and earnings reports; 2. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point; 3. Key companies like Micron Technology, FedEx, and Nike are scheduled to report earnings.

1. Major U.S. stock indices reached record highs early in the week, followed by a slight retreat as the market awaited the November Jobs Report. 2. The Biden administration tightened tech restrictions on China, limiting advanced chip sales and manufacturing equipment, which rallied U.S. semiconductor stocks. 3. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faced impeachment talks after declaring martial law, leading to a 2% drop in the KOSPI. 4. Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 threshold due to optimism about Trump's incoming administration. 5. Gold prices fluctuated, rebounding on Friday after the November jobs report suggested rate cuts.

➀ The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced on October 31 that it would keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, meeting market expectations; ➁ Despite the unchanged rate, the potential for future rate hikes is growing; ➂ The BOJ's decision reflects the complex economic landscape.