seekingalpha
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September 14
- Kyndryl: An Ideal Opportunity To Buy The Dip (Rating Upgrade)1. Kyndryl Holdings has underperformed in 2025 but shows potential for a turnaround with accelerating contract signings (40%+ growth) and a shift to high-margin work. 2. The company maintains positive revenue growth and is valued attractively at a P/E of 15x, with a projected 60% medium-term earnings CAGR and 7% forward FCF yield. 3. Technical indicators suggest support levels, and the company is actively repurchasing shares, signaling confidence in its recovery.
- Rigetti Computing Gets Closer To Crucial Quantum Milestone (Rating Upgrade)1. Rigetti Computing is upgraded to Buy due to catalysts like DARPA's QBI program and advancements in quantum technology; 2. Progress toward a 100-qubit system with >99.5% fidelity positions the company for DARPA Stage B grants and revenue growth; 3. Attractive valuation suggests a 33% upside potential if book value multiples align with historical averages, targeting ~$25 per share.
September 13
- Energy Transfer: Double Down Before It Breaks Out Higher1. Energy Transfer LP's core business remains strong with deeply undervalued stock, despite recent underperformance; 2. Q2 revenue miss masked robust EBITDA growth and a secure 1.7x distribution coverage ratio, ensuring dividend reliability; 3. Positioned to benefit from AI-driven energy demand for data centers, ET offers ~30% total return potential and technical indicators suggest an imminent breakout.
- ULTY: 100%+ Yield That Has To Be Ignored1. The semiconductor industry is grappling with new challenges due to global supply chain realignments; 2. Geopolitical tensions, material shortages, and logistical disruptions are key contributing factors; 3. Companies are adopting strategies like diversification, innovation, and partnerships to mitigate risks.
- monday.com: 20% Quality Growth Compounder With Net Cash And GAAP Profitability1. monday.com demonstrates high-quality growth with 27% YoY revenue growth, GAAP profitability, and a strong net cash position; 2. The company’s valuation appears attractive at 22x long-term earnings, with potential for 50% upside driven by margin strength and revenue expansion; 3. Risks include generative AI disruption and sector volatility, but the stock is rated 'Buy' due to its balanced growth and financial discipline.
- Don't Rush To Buy Uber (Downgrade)1. TSMC accelerates 2nm process development, with mass production expected in 2025, surpassing original plans; 2. Intel's 18A process faces delays and technical hurdles, impacting its competitiveness; 3. Apple is confirmed as TSMC's first major 2nm client, securing advanced chip supply for future devices.
- Dominion And The 'War On Wind'1. TSMC announces a $40 billion investment to build a semiconductor plant in Arizona, marking its largest overseas expansion; 2. The move aims to strengthen supply chain resilience and align with U.S. efforts to boost domestic chip production; 3. Challenges include labor shortages, cultural adjustments, and geopolitical tensions impacting global tech supply chains.
- Inflation Is Not A Virus, And It's Not Going Up1. TSMC secures major orders for its 2nm process technology from Apple, reinforcing its leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing; 2. Intel's foundry business faces challenges due to delays in process development and competition from TSMC; 3. The shift highlights intensifying competition in cutting-edge chip fabrication and supply chain dynamics.
- What Might Stock Markets Do If The FOMC Cuts Rates By Only 25 Bps1. The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in September 2025, but markets may have already priced in this move, risking volatility. 2. Recent inflation data shows moderation, though categories like clothing and food continue to rise faster than the headline CPI. 3. Labor market weakness, including downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls, supports easing, while traders face uncertainty if the Fed signals no further cuts.
September 12
- Nebius Stock: Set For Hyperscaler Glory1. TSMC reported a 32% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 2024, driven by strong AI-related chip demand; 2. The company highlighted AI processors as a key growth driver, projecting AI-related revenue to grow over 50% annually; 3. Challenges include geopolitical tensions, supply chain constraints, and competition in advanced packaging technologies.
- Another Beat And Raise Quarter Confirms Adobe As A Strong Buy1. Adobe reported another strong quarter with double-digit growth and raised guidance, demonstrating resilience in its core business; 2. AI-driven competitors are expanding the market rather than threatening Adobe, similar to Google Search's experience, with AI acting as a growth catalyst; 3. Despite risks like AI competition and macroeconomic uncertainty, Adobe's historically low valuation and solid fundamentals present significant upside potential.
- Federal Reserve Preview: Set To Resume Its Path Towards 3%1. Evidence of cooling consumer demand and a weakening jobs market supports expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts; 2. The Fed is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points starting in September 2025, followed by additional cuts in October, December, January, and March; 3. Despite market pricing in a 125bp easing cycle, the rate cuts will likely push short-term USD interest rates lower.
September 11
- SCHD: The Market Is Flashing 1999 Warnings1. Current tech valuations resemble the 1999 dot-com bubble, signaling a potential shift to safer, value-oriented assets; 2. SCHD’s defensive sector focus (e.g., Consumer Defensive, Health Care) and above-average dividend yield make it a stable, income-focused choice; 3. Despite underperforming tech stocks, SCHD offers resilience and consistent returns, aligning with dividend investors’ priorities amid market volatility.
- ASML Holding: $1.5B Mistral AI Misfire1. TSMC exceeded Q2 revenue forecasts, driven by strong AI-related chip demand; 2. Revenue rose 40% year-on-year to $20.67 billion, with AI processors accounting for 10% of sales; 3. The company forecasts continued growth in 2024, supported by AI adoption and advanced packaging technology.
- Shopify: Pay The Right Price1. Shopify maintains strong growth (20-30%) but trades near all-time highs with stretched valuations; 2. Despite innovation and market expansion, profitability remains constrained by high operating expenses; 3. Elevated valuation metrics (14x 2025 sales, 80x EPS) limit upside potential, warranting a Neutral stance amid heightened risk.
- Block: Improving Margin Trend1. Block demonstrates strong gross profit and operating margin growth, primarily driven by the accelerating momentum of its Cash App segment; 2. The Cash App segment achieved a 6 percentage point acceleration in gross profit growth compared to the previous quarter; 3. Block's forward P/E ratio of 21.4x is attractive relative to fintech peers, supporting a favorable valuation outlook despite risks like potential margin declines.
- Why I Bought Global Payments: Worldpay Deal, High Recovery Potential, Plus Massive Buybacks1. Global Payments is rated a Strong Buy due to strong fundamentals and plans for significant capital returns, regardless of the Worldpay deal outcome; 2. The Worldpay acquisition and Issuer Solutions divestiture are advancing, with expected synergies and a projected $1.5 billion free cash flow boost post-2026; 3. Aggressive buybacks ($7.5 billion through 2027), upcoming rate cuts, and undervalued stock price suggest substantial upside potential.
- Microsoft: A Once In A Generation Opportunity That Won't Last1. Microsoft is transitioning into an AI leader with proprietary models and partnerships, ensuring long-term growth; 2. The Nebius Group deal secures AI infrastructure at predictable costs, reducing capital risks; 3. Regulatory pressures are easing (e.g., EU antitrust settlement), while nuclear energy investments support stable AI operations, with the stock offering undervalued growth potential.
September 10
- 5 Clear Signs The Consumer Is Tapped Out1. Despite weakening jobs and housing markets, U.S. equities remain near record highs, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts and AI optimism; 2. Traditional valuations indicate stocks are overpriced, while consumers face rising living costs, dwindling savings, record debt, student loan pressures, and declining confidence; 3. These factors signal severe consumer strain, posing risks to economic stability and market performance.
- UnitedHealth: I Was Bullish Before Buffett, But Even More So Now1. Warren Buffett's investment in UnitedHealth reinforces the author's strong buy rating, highlighting long-term value despite recent challenges like earnings misses and higher medical costs. 2. UnitedHealth maintains robust revenue growth in key segments and offers a 2.76% dividend yield, supported by strong cash flows and a solid balance sheet. 3. The author recommends buying UNH on price weakness (below $300) for patient, long-term investors, emphasizing its appeal for dividend and value strategies.
- Silver: Ultimate Precious Metals Investment For 2025 And 20261. The global semiconductor shortage is caused by increased demand and supply chain disruptions; 2. Automotive manufacturers are facing production delays and revenue losses; 3. Governments and companies are investing in domestic chip production to mitigate future risks.
- John B. Sanfilippo & Son: I'm Not Nutty Enough To Downgrade This Play1. The author maintains a 'Buy' rating on John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS), arguing the market undervalues its strong fundamentals and growth potential despite recent underperformance; 2. Management is driving profit and cash flow growth through strategic pricing, even as sales volumes face challenges from weak consumer sentiment; 3. JBSS dominates the private label market, holds significant market share in key categories, and benefits from a dual-branded/private label strategy for future growth.
September 9
- We Are Not Facing A Recession1. Weak jobs data and labor market stagnation are policy-driven, not indicative of an imminent recession; 2. Trade policy uncertainty (e.g., tariffs) has slowed manufacturing job growth, but stable policies could revive hiring; 3. Consumer spending remains strong due to real wage growth, with recession concerns only arising if inflation-adjusted spending declines significantly.
- The Bond Market Is Pricing A Recession1. Federal Fund futures indicate aggressive policy easing to 2.8%, aligning with recession expectations; 2. Falling 10Y yields, driven by declining real yields, signal an impending recession; 3. The yield curve steepening and stock market trends suggest a recessionary bear market is underway.
September 8
- Incredibly, This Investment Has Surpassed Gold Since 2008 Crisis1. The author reiterates a buy recommendation for US index-tracking assets, citing strong market performance and rising expectations for interest rate cuts; 2. US stocks have outperformed gold since 2008, supported by earnings growth, low sovereign risk, and falling oil prices; 3. Despite risks like election cycles and high valuations, the S&P 500 target of 7,095 points reflects confidence in the US market's resilience and growth potential.
- 1 REIT To Sell And 1 REIT To Buy1. The author advocates for regular capital recycling in REIT investments by selling assets at fair value and reinvesting proceeds into new opportunities; 2. Highlights a track record of outperforming the broader REIT market through selective undervalued picks; 3. Promotes a premium investment service offering exclusive access to real-time portfolios, buy/sell alerts, and analyst insights.
- Nebius Drops The Mic1. Nebius achieved 625% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2025, with raised ARR guidance implying over 1000% annual growth, reflecting surging demand for AI computing; 2. The company is nearing profitability with improved operational efficiency, achieving positive adjusted EBITDA ahead of schedule; 3. Despite high valuation, the author maintains a buy rating due to exceptional growth and cost control aligning with long-term potential.
- Hercules Capital: A 9.78% Dividend Yield From U.S. Venture Debt1. Hercules Capital demonstrates strong dividend coverage, with NII exceeding base and aggregate payouts; 2. The BDC is expanding its investment portfolio rapidly while maintaining a conservative debt-to-equity ratio; 3. Potential Fed rate cuts may pressure net income, leading to a 'hold' rating due to valuation and near-term risks.
- Talen Energy: Nuclear Cashflows, AI-Driven Demand & CCGT Optionality. Buy Recommendation1. Talen Energy combines long-term nuclear contracts with flexible CCGT plants near data hubs, ensuring stable revenue and operational flexibility; 2. The company demonstrates disciplined capital allocation and strong liquidity, supporting shareholder value and strategic expansion; 3. It is well-positioned to capitalize on AI-driven demand growth and data center infrastructure needs, backed by a proven execution track record despite regulatory risks.
September 7
- This Week Could Bring The Fed's Worst Nightmare: Stagflation1. Weak July and August job reports shifted market focus from inflation to employment concerns, signaling a cooling labor market; 2. Significant downward revisions to prior job data intensified investor fears of economic slowdown; 3. Despite rising inflation expectations, the Fed is expected to prioritize rate cuts to support the weakening economy over combating inflation.