1. The market sold off as consumer confidence took a hit amid escalating trade tensions; 2. President Trump announced a 25% duty on $1.5T in imports from Canada and Mexico; 3. The article discusses the impact of these events on the stock market and the economy.

1. Trump's administration aims to lower the 10-year Treasury yield through fiscal austerity, deregulation, and tariffs, potentially triggering a recession. 2. Lower yields are essential for balancing the fiscal budget, with recession-induced lower growth expectations and increased demand for Treasuries being key strategies. 3. Employment metrics and inflation trends indicate potential economic weakness, with government spending cuts and tariffs exacerbating these issues.

1. The author's conservative approach to stock-picking is influenced by personal financial losses during the Great Recession; 2. The 18-year real estate cycle suggests a potential mild recession in late 2025 or early 2026; 3. The author recommends focusing on REIT sectors with pricing power and reducing exposure in certain sectors.

1. The macro environment in 2024 differs significantly from 2016, suggesting the effectiveness of the 2016 Trump playbook may be diminished. 2. Inflation is higher, debt and deficits are greater, and the global economy is on the brink of recession. 3. The S&P 500 is in a bubble, with the Shiller P/E ratio at a second-highest level ever.

1. As a dividend growth investor, the author recommends raising cash and selling lower-quality stocks due to potential recession risks. 2. Historical data suggests that rate cuts often precede recessions, making it prudent to increase cash positions. 3. Despite some buying opportunities, the author prefers holding cash in ETFs like SGOV for liquidity and safety.