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January 28
- JPMorgan Vs. OppFi: Which Stock Is The Better Buy?1. Trump's return to the White House has sparked optimism in the banking sector; 2. OppFi's stock has outperformed JPM by over 193% in the past six months; 3. Despite strong performance, JPM is rated Hold while OPFI is rated Strong Buy based on Seeking Alpha's Quant Factor Grades.
- Tech Stock Flash Crash: Why Savvy Investors Are Celebrating Instead Of Panicking1. $2.5 trillion in stock market wealth evaporated as big tech billionaires lost $108 billion in one day; 2. Despite claims of China surpassing U.S. AI tech, real-world factors suggest otherwise; 3. Tech superpowers are flush with money, and scaling AI requires consistent leaps in performance per watt, which Nvidia excels at; 4. A well-diversified, rules-based approach can limit downside, exploit volatility, and maintain long-term compounding.
- The Market Is Wrong: SoFi Is A Top Fintech Growth Play In 20251. SoFi Technologies reported strong Q4 results, exceeding revenue and earnings estimates; 2. Despite a slight EPS guidance miss for FY 2025, SoFi's financial services and Galileo segments drove significant revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth; 3. Shares dropped 10% after the guidance presentation, but growth prospects remain strong.
- Apple: If You Tried Apple Intelligence, Then You Know1. Apple has become a 'Slow-Grower' with minimal recent growth and failed new product attempts like Apple Intelligence and Vision Pro; 2. Despite high profitability and operational efficiency, Apple's valuation is disconnected from its growth prospects; 3. The 'Upgrade Super Cycle' narrative seems unrealistic as Apple Intelligence features have not driven higher sales or user engagement, leading to criticism; 4. The author reiterates Apple stock as a 'Sell' due to high valuation and overestimated growth projections.
- Netflix Is Expensive To Own But I Am Willing To Take The Risk1. Netflix's Q4 FY24 earnings report showed strong growth with revenue up 16% YoY and operating income up 52%; 2. Multiple growth drivers, including a thriving ad business, live events, and a robust content library, are expected to sustain Netflix's momentum through 2025 and beyond; 3. Despite high valuation, Netflix's superior operational performance, expanding margins, and strong cash generation make it justifiable to take calculated risks at current price levels.
- IBM Earnings Preview: 7% Free Cash Flow Yield As EPS Estimates Creep Higher1. IBM is set to report Q4 '24 earnings on January 29, 2025, with sell-side consensus expecting $3.75 per share on $17.45 billion in revenue, showing a 3% y-o-y decline in EPS. 2. The company is also expecting $4.29 billion in operating income, marking a 14% y-o-y growth. 3. For Q1 '25, the consensus is looking for $1.56 in EPS, $14.6 billion in revenue, and $2 billion in operating income, with expected y-o-y growth of -7%, +1%, and +23% respectively.
- United Parcel Service: The End Of Correction Seems Reached (Technical Analysis)1. UPS's financials have stabilized, showing revenue and net income growth, indicating an end to the decline. 2. UPS's profitability ratios, particularly RoE, remain above the industry average, suggesting a strong competitive position. 3. UPS is undervalued with a Forward P/E of 18.32x, presenting a good investment opportunity. 4. Technical analysis indicates strong support at $125, with potential for price rise, despite risks like labor costs and competition.
- Nvidia: DeepSeek Freakout Unwarranted1. Nvidia Corporation is facing pressure due to DeepSeek's claims of cheaper AI model training; 2. DeepSeek's R1 model claims to outperform OpenAI at a fraction of the cost; 3. Nvidia's stock drop presents a buying opportunity with AI demand likely to grow despite potential margin risks.
January 27
- Meta Platforms Q4 Preview: Is There A DeepSeek Risk?1. Meta's shares have surged 11.70% in three months, driven by strong AI investments, particularly in their Meta ads division; 2. Despite concerns about the new DeepSeek model, it presents a net positive opportunity for Meta to reduce CapEx and increase efficiency; 3. Analysts are optimistic about Meta's Q4 earnings, with significant EPS and revenue growth expected, supported by upward revisions.
- Feeling Bearish? Stock Up On These 5 Defensive Positions1. As a new administration takes office, market uncertainty increases with potential negative events such as global tariffs, inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions; 2. Non-cyclical stocks with strong momentum, solid valuations, and high growth potential can protect a well-balanced portfolio during a bear market; 3. SA Quant identifies five defensive stocks with solid growth, safety, and consistency for investors seeking stability in a downturn.
- MicroStrategy Is Buying Train Cars, Block Is Building Railroads1. MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy has yielded positive returns but carries high risk due to Bitcoin's volatility; 2. Block, Inc. benefits from Bitcoin's growth while maintaining strong standalone businesses; 3. MicroStrategy's approach involves issuing convertible notes to buy Bitcoin, while Block has built robust Bitcoin infrastructure and products.
- SentinelOne: Chasing The $375 Billion Cybersecurity Gold Rush1. The cybersecurity market is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR through 2028, with cloud-based cybersecurity potentially growing even faster. 2. SentinelOne's Singularity XDR suite drives strong ARR growth, with projections of $1.25 billion ARR by FY2026 and a DBNRR around 130%. 3. SentinelOne is nearing profitability, with expected positive operating income by FY2026.
- YouTube Could Be Google's Next Big Thing - Reiterating Buy1. I'm reiterating a buy on Google stock due to its growth potential in search engine, cloud computing, and YouTube; 2. The TikTok ban highlighted YouTube's potential, and YouTube Shorts' engagement is growing; 3. Google's investment in AI, particularly Gemini AI, aims to surpass competitors like OpenAI's ChatGPT.
- AES Corp.: What I Got Wrong (And Right)1. AES Corporation's aggressive transition to renewables and favorable valuation present a compelling risk-reward opportunity after a significant share price drop; 2. Q3 results showed strong EPS but missed revenue estimates, with significant renewable expansion and infrastructure developments; 3. AES's concentration risks are highlighted by peers with more balanced portfolios and lower leverage, despite remaining a long-term growth opportunity.
- GXO Logistics: Short-Term Uncertainty Creates A Generational Buying Opportunity1. GXO Logistics has strong visibility due to its recurring revenue, industry-leading automation, and defensive contract structures; 2. Organic growth is rebounding, margins are expanding, market share is increasing, and GXO is on track to achieve its 2027 targets; 3. Short-term uncertainty surrounding the new CEO, regulatory review, and rejected buyout bid has created a generational buying opportunity, despite no tangible impact on GXO's underlying fundamentals.
- Erasca's Naporafenib Is Shaping Up Nicely For NRASm Melanoma1. Naporafenib, Erasca's main candidate, has Fast Track status for NRASm melanoma. 2. The company has a strong balance sheet with approximately $463.3 million in cash and equivalents as of Q3 2024. 3. SEACRAFT-1 trial indicates potentially better efficacy of Naporafenib compared to SoC and competitors. 4. Naporafenib could file for FDA approval by late 2025 or 2026. 5. ERAS has a diversified pipeline for broader RAS cancers. 6. The stock has pulled back 40.7% from its 2024 highs, making it compelling at current levels.
- ASML: It's No Longer Dead In The Water1. ASML has held onto its November lows; 2. The AI compute debate is intense; 3. TSMC's CapEx outlook and AI revenue projections are positive; 4. President Trump's partnership with Stargate is a positive step; 5. ASML investors should capitalize on the recovery.
January 26
- The Week Ahead1. The Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year is expected on Wednesday; 2. The earnings season is in full swing with major companies reporting; 3. The economic calendar is packed with updates on GDP and inflation.
- Palantir: Multiple Fresh Growth Drivers Make This A Buy1. The outlook for AI applications software spending in 2025 is positive, with a focus on curated data solutions that Palantir dominates. 2. Palantir can benefit from the $500 billion investment in the Stargate Project as enterprises increase AI workload spends. 3. A hiring spree in a key Palantir partner organization indicates an expanding ecosystem. 4. Valuation multiples are re-rating due to growth catalysts, and the stock appears undervalued. 5. Technical analysis is bullish, with the stock bouncing strongly off weekly support.
- The Fed's Worst Nightmare Is Becoming Reality1. The Fed's dovish rate cuts have led to rising manufacturing and services prices, with inflation expected to increase further over the next six months; 2. January's data indicates accelerating inflation, complicating the Fed's 2% inflation target; 3. The market expects only one rate cut in 2025, and Powell should push back on early rate cuts.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The equity market experienced volatility as President Trump asked OPEC to lower oil prices and reintroduced tariff threats on Chinese imports. 2. Despite the volatility, major indices ended the week higher. 3. Netflix surged 15% after reporting record Q4 earnings.
- Why I'm Shorting Meta Platforms - These 3 Concerns Spook Me1. Meta's aggressive AI infrastructure investments may lead to a capital-intensive model, potentially reducing free cash flow yield and increasing financial risk; 2. Changes in content moderation policies may trigger advertiser backlash, similar to the challenges faced by X (formerly Twitter), potentially impacting ad revenue; 3. The strengthening U.S. dollar poses significant currency headwinds, potentially reducing billions from Meta's top and bottom lines due to high international revenue exposure. Given these risks, the author does not anticipate Meta achieving a $2 trillion valuation in the near future and shifts to a tactical bearish position.
- Micron: Why I'm Waiting For A Dip Now (Rating Downgrade)1. Micron's stock is downgraded to 'Hold' due to recent volatility and potential correction; 2. The memory market's cycles and Micron's weak Q2 guidance suggest near-term challenges; 3. Increased CapEx and competition may pressure Micron's free cash flow and pricing power; 4. Long-term prospects remain positive with potential market share growth in HBM.
- ASML Could Surge From DeepSeek Revelations1. ASML's role in semiconductor manufacturing is crucial, driven by AI advancements, making it a key player with significant growth potential despite geopolitical challenges; 2. Open-source AI models like DeepSeek-R1 democratize AI, increasing demand for advanced chips and benefiting ASML's specialized EUV lithography tools; 3. ASML's robust financials, including a strong installed base services segment, provide stability and growth opportunities amid cyclical semiconductor market fluctuations.
- Apple Q1 Preview: iPhone Sales Are Falling1. Apple's iPhone 16 sales are underwhelming, leading to an 8.64% YTD decline; 2. Concerns about long-term innovation and competition, especially in China; 3. Analysts are pessimistic about Apple's upcoming earnings with downward EPS and revenue revisions.
- CVR Partners, LP: The Ultimate Fertilizer Play1. CVR Partners, LP is well-positioned to benefit from global trade shifts, European gas crises, and rising corn prices, increasing demand for nitrogen fertilizers. 2. Trump's tariffs and deregulation policies have enhanced UAN's competitive edge, reducing production costs and increasing strategic value in the fertilizer sector. 3. Carl Icahn's increased stake and bullish outlook indicate strong insider confidence in UAN's future growth and value appreciation.
- Week Ahead: Can The Dollar's Downside Correction Withstand The Divergence Of Policy?1. President Trump's tariff threats initially caused turmoil in the foreign exchange market; 2. The impact diminished over time; 3. The euro's sensitivity to European developments seems to be decreasing while its sensitivity to the US dollar is increasing.
January 25
- These Could Be The 10 Best Deep Value Dividend Aristocrat Bargains For February1. The market's recent pullback is over, with the S&P hitting record highs due to strong earnings growth potential through 2027. 2. Despite the high PEGY ratio, robust growth forecasts mean valuations won't necessarily trigger a bear market. 3. The 10-stock dividend aristocrats are undervalued by 37%, offering an average yield of 3.4% with potential for 78% upside in 2025 if they revert to fair value.
- What Moved Markets This Week1. The S&P 500 index reached a new record high, driven by U.S. President Trump's inauguration and strong earnings reports. 2. Trump signed several executive orders reversing policies from the Biden administration. 3. The focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year.
- Meta Is Chasing A New Shiny Object1. Meta's $60 billion AI investment for 2025 mirrors past overspending on Reality Labs, risking questionable returns and monetization challenges. 2. Despite Reality Labs' losses, Meta's revenue grew 10% YoY, driven by its ads business, which remains 99+% of revenue. 3. Mark Zuckerberg's control and diverse interests could impact Meta's future investment decisions, posing a significant risk.