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December 19
- Chevron: The Superior Supermajor1. Chevron's consistent strategy and focus on oil and gas have led to superior performance and strong dividend growth; 2. Unlike Shell and BP, Chevron maintains a clear 'molecules' strategy, avoiding the 'valley of death'; 3. Recent acquisitions enhance Chevron's portfolio and align with its high returns, low carbon approach.
- How To Defend Against More 3% S&P 500 Down Days Like Wednesday1. Market narratives are often post-facto explanations; focus on assessing risk and upside potential rather than predicting market movements. 2. Current market conditions show a significant disparity between the performance of top stocks and the broader market, highlighting underlying weaknesses. 3. Defensive strategies like T-bills and single inverse ETFs can help manage risk and protect against major losses in uncertain times.
- Fed Confirms A Slower And Shallower Rate Cut Story For 20251. The Fed has cut rates by 25bp, bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 100bp. 2. The Fed's updated projections and Chair Powell's press conference indicate a more cautious approach next year. 3. Sticky inflation and President Trump's policy mix suggest a higher hurdle for rate cuts in 2025.
- Wall Street Lunch: Fed's Hawkish Cut Hits Stocks Hard1. The Fed cuts rates by a quarter point as expected, but lowered expectations for cuts in 2025 and boosted inflation forecasts. 2. The Nasdaq and S&P saw significant losses, and the Dow extended its losing streak. 3. The market reaction was negative, with stocks plunging and yields rising.
December 18
- Retirement Income With 9% Yield And Growth: Western Midstream1. Western Midstream Partners, LP Common Units (WES) offers a toll bridge-style investment with direct cash flow to investors. 2. High levels of free cash flow allow for ample rewards to unit holders. 3. The yield is consistent, providing income in both good and bad times.
- The Birth Of A New Auto Industry Giant?1. Honda and Nissan are in the process of forming a new partnership to avoid bankruptcy; 2. The new entity could split Japan's auto industry into two camps; 3. The partnership aims to restore global competitiveness and invest in new technologies.
- Why The Market May Get Turned Upside Down In 20251. AI stocks have dominated the market in 2024, driving the S&P 500 higher. 2. The market may experience a reversal in 2025. 3. Reasons for the potential reversal and top picks for the new year are shared.
- The Calm Before The Storm1. Stock market fundamentals are solid but weakening, especially in terms of liquidity. 2. Most long-term sentiment and position measures are at their maximum. 3. The market is priced for perfection from a fundamental perspective. 4. If economic data and corporate earnings disappoint and global liquidity continues to decline, significant market volatility could occur. 5. Short-term market strength suggests a final rally before a more volatile 2025. 6. Evidence indicates 2025 will be a challenging year for equities.
- Super Micro Computer: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful1. Upgraded SMCI to Strong Buy due to cleared regulatory uncertainties, compelling valuation metrics, and strong technical setup; 2. Recent NASDAQ extension and new auditor appointment address delisting concerns; 3. Nvidia's demand for Blackwell GPUs positions SMCI for significant revenue growth.
- Advanced Micro Devices: A No-Brainer Buy For Long-Term Value Investors In 20251. AMD stock is a compelling buy for long-term value investors in 2025 despite recent Wall Street downgrades and weak technical indicators. 2. AMD's data center revenue is expected to drive significant growth, similar to Nvidia's trajectory from 1.5 years ago. 3. The recent Wall Street downgrade appears to be a reaction to share price decline rather than fundamentals, and market share concern is less critical given the rapid growing AI demand.
- Realty Income: Buy The Dip1. Realty Income, a major REIT, offers a strong, reliable dividend yield and diversified portfolio. 2. The company's extensive portfolio of over 15,000 properties ensures stable rent income. 3. Despite high valuations, Realty Income's low volatility, strong balance sheet, and strategic investments make it a solid long-term investment.
- Devon Energy Is A Compelling Energy Buy For 20251. Devon Energy is a top pick for energy sector allocation due to strong value metrics and production boost from Grayson Mill acquisition; 2. The stock has dropped over 50% from 2022 highs, presenting a buying opportunity; 3. Devon maintains an attractive dividend yield and focuses on debt reduction and share buybacks, positioning for potential oil price rally.
- Wall Street Lunch: Quantum Stocks Manic1. Quantum computing stocks surged after winning a NASA contract; 2. November retail sales exceeded expectations; 3. Wolfe Research identifies stocks like Sirius XM and Rivian as potential rebound candidates.
- Berkshire Hathaway For Dividend Investors: My Favorite Buffett Dividend Stock1. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway does not pay dividends, as Buffett believes his team allocates capital better than individual investors. 2. Dividend investors seek reliable cash flows for retirement, preferring stocks with significant dividends. 3. The author presents a list of favorite stocks for dividend investors, including one that is a good buy today.
December 17
- Google: Ultimate Synergy Play Among Big Tech1. Alphabet operates in high-growth sectors like AI, cloud computing, streaming, and autonomous vehicles, creating unparalleled synergies across its divisions. 2. Unlike rivals, Alphabet's ecosystem integrates its technologies deeply, enhancing efficiency and reinforcing its market positions. 3. Alphabet's interconnected system boosts revenue streams, with YouTube's $8.9 billion ad revenue and Google's Cloud division's 35% YOY growth as prime examples.
- AT&T Is My Favorite Stock For 20251. AT&T has outperformed the S&P 500 in 2024, despite facing headwinds. 2. The company's stable earnings, improved free cash flow, and debt reduction support future dividend growth. 3. The sale of DirecTV simplifies AT&T's business, enhancing efficiency and profitability. 4. Investors can boost income through selling put or covered call options, but should be aware of associated risks.
- Viking Therapeutics: Caution Ahead Of Novo's CagriSema Readout (Rating Downgrade)1. Viking Therapeutics' stock has dropped 25% despite Phase 2 promising results for VK2735 due to competition in the obesity treatment market; 2. Viking's financial health is strong with over $50 million in cash and $880 million in short-term investments; 3. The obesity treatment market is dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, challenging Viking's differentiation and market share gain.
- CVS Health: Insurance Business Challenges Continue1. The 'Sell' rating on CVS Health has performed well, with the stock down over 20% in total shareholder return. 2. The healthcare benefits business faces margin contraction and higher loss ratios due to unfavorable policy terms. 3. Earnings expectation downgrades counteract CVS' low valuation compared to peers. 4. Bears dominate the long-term technical charts for CVS versus the S&P 500. 5. A potential breakup of CVS Caremark could unlock value but may also lead to more leadership attrition.
- Realty Income: Buy The Dip1. Realty Income remains attractive due to its diverse portfolio, strong operational performance, and stable cash flows despite recent underperformance. 2. Q3 FY2024 showed impressive revenue growth, high occupancy rates, and strategic investments. 3. The valuation suggests significant upside potential, with a fair value estimate of $66.53 to $87.57 per share.
- A Monkey In Every Circus: Initiating Google With A Buy1. Google is losing its share in the search engine market, but the author remains unfazed due to the company's diversification strategy; 2. The article highlights the significant growth in Google Cloud, which is gaining market share against Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure; 3. Alphabet's valuation metrics are promising with a lower PE ratio compared to Amazon and Microsoft, and strong market sentiment supporting the stock.
- My Boldest Bet On Micron So Far: Why I'm Shorting This Stock Prior To Earnings1. The author shifted his rating on Micron to a sell with an $85 price target due to pricing and geopolitical headwinds. 2. Concerns are raised about a possible selloff post-earnings if management provides softer Q2 FY25 guidance. 3. The author remains bullish on Micron's long-term pivot to high-margin memory products but anticipates near-term volatility.
December 16
- All I Want For Christmas Are A Few Great REITs1. The author presents his top 5 undervalued REITs for Christmas; 2. VICI Properties, Realty Income, Alexandria Real Estate, American Tower, and Rexford Industrial are highlighted for their strong growth potential and attractive valuations; 3. Each REIT offers significant upside potential by the end of 2025, with well-covered dividends and solid balance sheets.
- Google: I Can No Longer Ignore Secular Risks (Ratings Downgrade)1. Alphabet Inc.'s stock is rising, but the market is ignoring secular risks. 2. The latest quarter showed 16% YoY revenue growth and a significant increase in cloud margins. 3. The stock's valuation at 22x earnings may already account for competitive headwinds, but further pressure on search revenue growth is anticipated. 4. The author prefers reallocating to stocks with better risk-reward profiles, like Meta Platforms, given the rising valuations and potential headwinds for GOOG.
- Broadcom: Keep Calm And Let Profits Ride1. AI-led growth acceleration in Broadcom's semiconductor solutions business has a long runway due to increased shipment volume. 2. VMware is driving strong margin expansion at a faster-than-expected rate. 3. Wall Street analysts are upgrading revenue, gross margins, and operating profit estimates, indicating bullish fundamental signs.
- Nike: Confidently Holding Through Earnings1. Nike has slightly increased in value, outperforming the market by 9.4% after receiving a Buy rating in early summer. 2. The company is expected to report earnings this week with relatively low consensus expectations. 3. The growing global popularity of American Football and an extended NFL contract could add a wildcard element for Nike. NKE still needs to prove its ability to maintain and defend its significant market leadership margin. 4. With moderate payout ratios, Nike positions itself as an income investment for a long-term dividend marathon.
- How Long Will MercadoLibre's Earnings Take To Payback Investors?1. Time Until Payback is a critical metric for evaluating investments, focusing on how long it takes to recoup the initial investment through earnings. 2. MercadoLibre's TUP is estimated at 12 years, making it relatively attractive compared to the S&P 500's 14-15 years. 3. Fast-growth stocks like MELI offer significant upside potential but come with higher volatility and a wider range of outcomes; patience and long-term holding are key.
- Merck Has Become Very Cheap Again1. Merck's shares have declined significantly, increasing its dividend yield and compressing its valuation, presenting an attractive investment opportunity. 2. Keytruda, the company's largest drug, is showing strong revenue growth and potential for further approvals and market expansion. 3. Merck's diverse drug portfolio and robust pipeline support future growth. 4. Merck is trading at a significant discount compared to historical valuations, offering a solid dividend yield and potential for attractive total returns.
- ServiceTitan: New IPO Hasn't Blown Out Of Proportion Yet; Worth Buying1. ServiceTitan's stock has surged ~40% since its IPO; 2. The company offers a comprehensive product platform for trades industries with a strong 'land and expand' business model; 3. The stock is currently trading at ~10x forward revenue, offering a rare opportunity to buy a high-growth IPO before it reaches a high valuation.
- ImmunityBio: Forging A New Plan After Recent $100 Million Offering1. ImmunityBio's $100M public offering supports ANKTIVA's commercialization and pipeline programs; 2. Despite dilution and lower offering price, ANKTIVA's performance and future milestones could drive substantial growth; 3. Financial risks persist, but potential for explosive revenue growth supports a bullish outlook.
December 15
- The Fed Could Be Creating A Disaster For The Market1. The Fed's rate cut decision could significantly impact interest rates, the dollar, and the bond market, with equities also affected over time. 2. Despite recent inflation data, there is a near 100% chance for a 25 bps rate cut, but the Fed should be cautious given rising inflation expectations. 3. If the Fed cuts rates, it should be the last cut unless inflation drops; otherwise, higher 10-year rates and a stronger dollar are expected.