seekingalpha
Author page description
January 6
- Barings BDC: Portfolio Quality Continues To Weaken (Rating Downgrade)1. The author downgrades Barings BDC due to increased non-accruals, lower earnings, and weaker dividend coverage; 2. Despite a 10.7% dividend yield and a diversified portfolio, no significant dividend increases are expected; 3. The recent 5% price drop presents an entry point, but concerns remain about future performance due to NAV decline and higher non-accrual rates.
- American Airlines: Growth Ahead, But Debt Remains A Drag1. Despite positive industry outlook and new credit card deal, American Airlines remains a hold due to high debt, lower margins, and premium valuation. 2. Q3 2024 earnings showed revenue growth and reduced debt, but net income loss persists; Q4 2024 earnings guidance was recently increased by management. 3. A new exclusive credit card partnership with Citi aims to boost loyalty program earnings but faces regulatory challenges and rising credit delinquencies.
- Aquestive Therapeutics: Five Foci For 20251. Aquestive Therapeutics' Anaphylm is nearing FDA approval, potentially disrupting the U.S. anaphylaxis market; 2. AQST-108, a topical epinephrine gel for alopecia areata, shows promise; 3. Libervant, a diazepam buccal film for cluster seizures, has gained orphan drug exclusivity.
- S&P 500 2025 Outlook: Prepare For The Largest Correction In 2 Years1. Sentiment has shifted bullish, with analysts predicting higher S&P500 targets. 2. Economic growth is modest at 2.1%, driven by lower taxes and margins, but high valuations limit upside potential. 3. Technical analysis indicates a likely correction with a target of 5100 in H1 2025.
- Brookfield Infrastructure's 7.2% Yield Investment-Grade Bonds Are On Sale For 68 Cents On The Dollar1. I have been purchasing Brookfield Infrastructure's 5.0% Subordinated Notes due to their significant discount, trading at 68 cents on the dollar. 2. The notes offer an asymmetrical investment profile supported by BIP's investment-grade balance sheet, diversified assets, and strong funds from operation generation. 3. The recent price collapse presents a unique buying opportunity driven by market volatility and end-of-year tax loss selling.
January 5
- 5 Cheap Growth Stocks For 20251. The stock market had a strong performance in 2024 with the S&P 500 up 23.64% and the Nasdaq up 28.64%, raising concerns about overvaluation. 2. The article highlights five growth stocks that appear undervalued. 3. The author emphasizes the importance of long-term fundamentals in investment decisions.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all saw significant gains in 2024; 2. Consumer spending continued to drive the economy with retail spending increasing; 3. Cryptocurrency trends, particularly Bitcoin, were a major focus with significant price fluctuations; 4. Geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty were highlighted by events in the U.S., Russia, and the Middle East.
- Altria Group: HTS Portfolio May Be A Missing Piece In The Puzzle (Rating Upgrade)1. Altria's success hinges on its HTS market entry through the Horizon JV with Japan Tobacco, leveraging Marlboro's brand strength to capture market share in the underdeveloped US HTS space. 2. Other smoke-free initiatives (on!, NJOY) also have potential upside, but their financial impact has not been significant yet. 3. The HTS portfolio is considered a missing piece in the puzzle. Altria's current valuation is attractive, and with the growth of smoke-free initiatives, especially HTS, multiples could increase. 4. Altria is a 'buy' for investors who believe in the HTS product launch, but it faces risks from market conditions and competition from established brands like IQOS.
- JD.Com: A Capital Return Play For 20251. JD.com is a leading e-commerce company in China, benefiting from Beijing's stimulus package; 2. The company is highly profitable with significant operating income and free cash flow; 3. JD.com offers an attractive risk profile with a 7.3X forward P/E ratio.
- S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Snaps 5-Day Losing Streak1. The S&P 500 ended a 5-day losing streak but still closed the week with a loss of 0.48% from the previous Friday. 2. The index is currently 2.43% below its record close from December 6th, 2024, and is up 1.26% year-to-date. 3. The U.S. Treasury's 10-year note yield closed at 4.60% on January 3rd, which is above its record low.
- The Argument For SGOV Over CDs (Rating Upgrade)1. The author upgrades SGOV to a 'strong buy' due to its better trade-offs for cash compared to CDs in the current rate environment; 2. SGOV offers stability and liquidity with a forward yield of 5.10%, making it a preferable option over CDs; 3. CDs present reinvestment risks, especially if rates drop significantly, but SGOV mitigates this risk with its flexibility and liquidity.
- Public Storage Is An Appealing Firm, But Not An Appealing Prospect1. Public Storage remains a 'hold' due to high valuation despite being a strong operator in the self-storage industry with a significant market share; 2. Revenue growth driven by acquisitions, but profits and cash flows have declined due to lower rental revenue per square foot and occupancy rates; 3. Public Storage has less net leverage compared to peers, providing operational flexibility and potential for strategic acquisitions amid slower industry supply growth.
- Realized Returns Portfolio: 2024 Review And 2025 Outlook1. The author's retirement portfolio achieved a record amount of realized gains in 2024, generating over $110k in tax-free income and bringing the 4-year average annual income to $95.5k. 2. The author explains how high-yield funds and stock swing trading are used to grow the cost basis of the Roth retirement portfolio. 3. Despite the popular sentiment, the author expects a down market for 2025 and justifies this outlook, while also anticipating continued gains regardless of market direction.
January 4
- 5 Relatively Secure And Cheap Dividend Stocks, Yields Up To 8% (January 2025)1. This article highlights five large-cap, relatively safe dividend-paying companies offering significant discounts to their historical norms; 2. The filtering process involved selecting five conservative DGI stocks from over 7,500 companies; 3. The article also presents two other groups of five DGI stocks with yields ranging from moderate to high, up to 8%.
- 3 'Wide Moat' Buys For 2025 (Not REITs)1. Diversification is key in Brad Thomas's portfolio, which includes a mix of REITs, BDCs, utilities, asset managers, preferreds, ETFs, and cash. 2. Alphabet is a strong buy despite regulatory challenges, with potential returns of 15-20% over the next 12 months. 3. ASML Holdings has a virtual monopoly in high-end photolithography systems, poised for significant growth despite geopolitical concerns. 4. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton offers robust diversification in luxury goods with strong growth prospects and recent buyback signaling confidence.
- What Moved Markets This Week1. The S&P 500 index ended lower for the holiday-shortened week as Wall Street's bull run lost some steam. 2. The S&P 500 posted a massive advance of +23.31% for the year, marking the first time since 1998 that it delivered back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%. 3. Tesla garnered attention with a Cybertruck explosion and its first annual fall in deliveries. 4. The S&P 500 slipped -0.5% for the week, while the Dow and Nasdaq also fell slightly.
- Micron's Bold Bet On AI Memory1. Micron's data center revenue surged 4X YoY and 40% sequentially in Q1-FY25, contributing 55% of consolidated revenue. 2. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) revenue doubled sequentially, with a TAM projection growing from $16B in CY24 to $30B in CY25. 3. Q1-FY25 DRAM revenue reached $6.4B, increasing 87% YoY and 20% sequentially.
- Credo Technology: Riding The AI Tailwind Into 20251. Credo Technology Group is well-positioned to benefit from AI and data center growth; 2. The company reported very strong quarterly results and provided revenue guidance that significantly exceeded expectations; 3. Despite a premium valuation, Credo's strong revenue growth, improving margins, and multi-year AI tailwinds make it a compelling investment, especially on pullbacks.
- Can GPIQ Dethrone JEPQ As King Of Nasdaq 100 Income?1. The author initiated coverage on JEPQ over a year ago, recommending it for aggressive income investors due to its high yield and Nasdaq 100 upside. 2. GPIQ, a newer fund, has outperformed JEPQ in total return since inception, but only in a bull market with a very slight outperformance. 3. Both funds use similar strategies: buying Nasdaq 100 components and selling call options to generate income, resulting in minor price appreciation but high dividend distribution. 4. The article compares the funds and attempts to answer whether JEPQ investors should consider GPIQ.
- 4-Factor Dividend Growth Strategy - Cold Winter Air Creeps Into The Portfolio1. The 4-factor dividend growth portfolio is a strategy that utilizes Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF's stock selection process with some minor adjustments. 2. The portfolio is facing its worst start since inception, lagging behind both the S&P 500 and SCHD. 3. Since its inception, the portfolio has achieved a CAGR of 17.69%, outperforming SCHD by 8.52%.
- Fresenius: The Signs Of A Significant Turnaround Are Getting Clearer And Clearer1. Fresenius is showing significant upside with a 25% RoR since early 2024; 2. The turnaround is evident with improved EPS, reduced leverage, and strong performance in key segments like Kabi and Helios; 3. A conservative price target of €35/share is expected to yield a 60% RoR in the next 3 years.
- SentinelOne: Focus On AI And Automation Is A Key Differentiator1. SentinelOne's earnings call highlights the focus on AI and automation; 2. Revenue growth shows a gradual deceleration, but fundamentals remain strong with positive EBITDA and UCFC margins; 3. Valuation is attractive compared to peers with higher growth potential and upcoming profitability inflection.
- Quantum-Si: Another Wrong Horse On The Quantum Computing Racetrack - Sell1. Quantum-Si, a life sciences company, has been chosen as a quantum computing play due to its name, despite not being involved in the field. 2. Since its listing on Nasdaq, the company has burned through nearly $350 million and is far behind its original business plan. 3. Quantum-Si has extended its cash runway by raising additional funds, but is expected to lose momentum traders soon. A 'Sell' rating is initiated for its common stock.
January 3
- My Top 10 Utilities For 20251. Long-term rates have risen, creating potential buying opportunities for utilities like AEP, AWK, AWR, BKH, ES, EVRG, SJW, WEC, WTRG, and XEL; 2. These utilities have strong fundamentals, attractive valuations, and investment-grade balance sheets; 3. Despite rate sensitivity, these utilities are well-positioned for long-term growth with secure dividends and robust balance sheets.
- Biden To Block Japanese Takeover Of U.S. Steel1. President Biden is expected to block Nippon Steel's $14.9B deal for U.S. Steel due to national security concerns. 2. The deal faced opposition from senators and was seen as a threat to national and economic security. 3. U.S. Steel's rejection of a previous bid and the potential for future offers suggest a competitive market.
- EPR Properties: The Big Dividend Yield Is A Buy1. EPR Properties has seen its dividend yield rise to just under 8% following its recent pullback; 2. The REIT is covering its dividend by 151% from its fiscal 2024 third-quarter FFOAA; 3. Strong free cash flow generation and a well-laddered maturity profile raise the possibility of a near-term dividend hike.
- Palo Alto Networks Set To Penetrate A Potential $30B Market1. Palo Alto Networks is aggressively targeting the $30 billion SIEM market, aiming to capture significant market share from legacy vendors like Splunk and Microsoft. 2. The company's platformization strategy and recent SIEM-focused acquisition are expected to accelerate its path to a $15 billion ARR target, supporting a Buy rating. 3. Management aims to become a top 3 player in the SIEM market within 24 months, leveraging its successful XDR market penetration.
- Taking Stock: Q1 2025 Equity Market Outlook1. U.S. stocks are on track for a second year of strong positive returns; 2. The S&P 500 Index had its best month of the year in November; 3. 2025 could be a pivotal period for active managers with the right expertise.
- SoundHound: Revenue Growth Masks Underlying Concerns - Time To Take Profits1. SoundHound's stock surged over 1,000% in 2024 due to NVIDIA's investment and strong Q3 earnings; 2. Despite revenue growth and new deals, SOUN remains unprofitable and cash flow negative; 3. SoundHound's competitive edge is its superior voice AI technology; 4. The stock's valuation appears unsustainable, and investors should wait for profitability or cash flow improvements.
- Celsius Holdings: Despite Low Predictability, Attractively Priced Due To Turnaround Potential (Rating Upgrade)1. Celsius Holdings' stock plummeted from $96 to $26 due to a shock growth halt, primarily caused by PepsiCo's inventory optimization. 2. Q3 saw a 31% revenue drop, with gross margins at 46% and operating margins turning negative, highlighting the impact of PepsiCo's changes. 3. The future outlook hinges on aligning sell-in and sell-out, market recovery, and successful international expansion; 2025 should see improved performance if these align.