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March 30
- Tesla's Q1 Delivery Could Dip Below 300,000, Causing A Big Correction1. Tesla is expected to report its Q1 delivery numbers soon, with most analysts predicting a significant decline from the previous year's quarter. 2. Sales in Europe and China have significantly declined, potentially leading to Q1 deliveries below 300,000. 3. The autonomous driving bet is risky, with Tesla lagging behind Waymo in key metrics. 4. Tesla's energy segment is performing well, but it will take until the end of the decade to reach a 50% revenue share. 5. Forward earnings and revenue estimates vary greatly among analysts, indicating significant risk with the current stock price.
- SCHD: It Is No Longer Just About Income And Growth, But Also About Alpha1. SCHD is a solid instrument for prudent income-investors to diversify their current income streams. 2. The core investment case of SCHD is related to an acceptable initial yield and around double-digit dividend growth rate. 3. In the current market environment, SCHD has become an even more attractive dividend paying vehicle.
March 29
- 10 Dividend Aristocrats With Big Upside Potential In 20251. Despite recession fears, historical data and fundamentals suggest strong stock market gains; 2. Sentiment surveys are unreliable and hard economic data indicates robust consumer spending; 3. Dividend aristocrats offer significant upside potential with long-term dividend growth and attractive valuations; 4. The current market conditions present a rare buying opportunity; 5. The selected aristocrats are undervalued, have strong credit ratings, and offer long-term return potential.
- What Moved Markets This Week1. The market experienced a volatile week, starting with an advance and ending with a selloff. Tariffs and inflation were key factors affecting market sentiment. 2. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell, with the S&P 500 down -1.5% and the Nasdaq down -2.6%. 3. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.4% M/M in February, higher than the consensus estimate.
- Amazon Deep Dive: The Only Analysis You'll Ever Need1. Amazon's focus on third-party sales, advertising, and cloud services should drive further growth; 2. Despite predicting rather pessimistic growth rates, the company is currently trading at fair value; 3. With realistic growth and profitability metrics, Amazon could offer additional potential of up to 95%.
- NuScale Power: The Bottom Isn't In Yet (Technical Analysis)1. The stock has fallen over 35% since the sell rating in December 2024; 2. Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook with no signs of bottoming; 3. Revenue spike in recent earnings, but commercialization still distant.
- I'm Betting On Tan's Intel For A Trade In 2025 - Initiating With A Buy1. Intel has appointed a new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, focusing on efficiency and cost reduction; 2. The company is back on the innovation track with the 18A chip and expected PC market recovery; 3. Potential for stock appreciation due to merger talks involving GlobalFoundries, TSMC, and other tech giants.
March 28
- Super Micro: The Dust Has Settled And A Comeback Is Coming (Rating Upgrade)1. Historical accounting issues and OEM competition are present, but AI tailwinds, mid-range server adoption, and cost optimization support a Moderate Buy stance with a $50-$60 target; 2. Vertically integrated manufacturing, customizable GPUs, and global expansion signal robust top-line prospects, but uncertain supplier ties and potential share commoditization are concerns; 3. Despite not ranking top among AI plays, moderate margins, scaling operations, and ongoing HPC adoption imply a 25-37% upside, assuming stable EPS growth and limited accounting risks.
- Baidu: AI Ambitions Vs. Advertising Reality - Why The Stock Remains Overvalued1. Baidu's AI advancements face competition from DeepSeek and Alibaba; 2. Baidu's core advertising business is hindered by user experience and bid-ranking systems; 3. Baidu appears overvalued at 1.5x forward EV/Revenue compared to peers; 4. Investors should avoid Baidu due to uncertain AI leadership and focus on higher-quality Chinese stocks.
- Lululemon Q4 2024 Earnings Update1. Lululemon has consistently reported double-digit revenue growth since its IPO in 2007; 2. Despite skepticism in 2024, the company achieved double-digit growth; 3. The 2025 top-line guidance suggests a slower growth rate.
- Politics And The Markets 03/28/251. This is a forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha; 2. The comments are not regulated rigorously; 3. The guideline is to refrain from personal attacks.
March 27
- Palantir: It's Like Nvidia In 2022 (Rating Upgrade)1. Palantir's Q4 FY24 revenue surged 36% YoY, exceeding expectations by 7.6%; 2. FY25 revenue is projected to grow above 31% driven by AIP's 54% YoY growth; 3. Despite high valuation, Palantir's earnings are expected to grow at a 50% CAGR over the next three years, justifying a premium price target of $136.
- As IPOs Make A Comeback, Is It Time To Invest?1. The IPO market is beginning to thaw in 2025 after several years of slow activity. 2. Lower inflation, interest rate cuts, and a return to dealmaking are encouraging companies to go public. 3. 66 IPOs have been filed, marking a 27% increase from the same period last year. 4. The article discusses the potential risks and opportunities in the current IPO market.
- Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: More Trump Tariffs1. President Trump announced new tariffs on automobile imports, with a 25% tariff on all vehicles not manufactured in the U.S. effective April 2; 2. Analysts warn that these tariffs could significantly raise car prices and disrupt the supply chain; 3. The tariffs could lead to higher car prices in the U.S. by $5,000 to $10,000 depending on the make/model/price point.
- History Says Buy. The Market Says Wait. Who's Right On Amazon?1. Amazon's stock price does not reflect its improved efficiency, profitability, and focus; 2. Despite a 20% drop, Amazon's fundamentals suggest an attractive entry point; 3. AWS investments and cash flow growth indicate a strategic shift towards infrastructure reinforcement; 4. Historical data shows Amazon's stock often bounces back after significant drops.
- The Amazon Dip: There's Hardly Been A Buying Opportunity This Good In Ages1. Amazon has transitioned from a hypergrowth disruptor to a market leader with declining valuation multiples; 2. The stock is undervalued due to market sentiment and economic uncertainty; 3. Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the primary growth driver with high-margin AI offerings; 4. Amazon's three-layer AI strategy gives it a competitive edge in the AI revolution; 5. Despite economic risks, AWS's profitability and Amazon's strategic AI positioning suggest significant upside potential.
- Palantir: Tailwinds Continuing To Fade1. Palantir's stock surged after the US presidential election, driven by expectations of accelerated federal business growth and strong fourth quarter results. 2. Despite current performance, the company's market capitalization does not justify its current performance. 3. The author believes Palantir's growth will normalize as AI momentum fades, but the strong investor base may prevent a significant drop in stock price.
- Nvidia: Time For Investors To Let Go Of The DeepSeek Fear1. Despite a 21.8% stock decline, the author maintains a BUY rating on NVDA due to strong AI capex spending and superior Blackwell chip efficiency. 2. The DeepSeek saga has not reduced AI spending; Blackwell remains crucial for advanced AI models, outperforming Hopper in efficiency and capability. 3. Investor sentiment is disconnected from management's evidence-backed optimism; NVDA's leadership in AI remains strong, with significant upside potential from current levels.
March 26
- Nebius Group: Update Of My Nebius AI's Operating Metrics Forecast And Valuation1. Nebius's stock has dropped 21% since the last article, but the company has announced several positive developments. 2. The forecast for Nebius's operating metrics has been updated, with capital expenditure projections increased to $5.05 billion in 2025 and $4.49 billion in 2026. 3. Revenue estimates have been revised upward to $845 million in 2025 and $3.02 billion in 2026. Despite high CAPEX requirements, Nebius AI has flexible financing options.
- Ares Capital: A Great BDC, But This Isn't The Moment1. Ares Capital is a leading BDC with a strong track record and conservative underwriting; 2. Despite good 10-K results, current economic uncertainties and recession fears make it unattractive to invest in ARCC; 3. ARCC's historical performance during crises shows significant drops, indicating its sensitivity to economic downturns and risk in the current macro environment.
- Nvidia: Golden Era Is Coming To An End, Downgrade To Sell1. Downgrade Nvidia to 'Sell' due to long-term growth challenges in premium GPUs for AI training; 2. Evidence shows AI training can use lower-performance GPUs, reducing reliance on Nvidia's high-end products; 3. Major hyperscalers are developing custom GPUs, threatening Nvidia's dominance in the AI training market.
- Sprout Social: A Near-Term Bottom Likely Approaching, Valuation Quite Appealing (Rating Upgrade)1. Tech stocks have been hit hard, with Sprout Social losing 60% of its value; 2. Despite slowed growth, Sprout Social's valuation is attractive at 3.0x EV/FY25 revenue; 3. Social media remains crucial for marketing, and Sprout Social's focus on profitability is a positive sign; 4. Risks include poor enterprise sales execution and competition from DIY tools; 5. The low valuation offers a long-term investment opportunity.
- SoFi Technologies: Don't Overthink It - Accumulate More While You Still Can1. We initially rated SoFi Technologies a 'Strong Buy' due to its strong offerings, member growth, and attractive valuation; 2. The stock surged over 175% at its peak but recently dropped 40% due to market-wide sell-offs; 3. Despite the drawdown, we remain bullish on SOFI based on its continued growth and long-term prospects; 4. The current valuation presents an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors.
- Walmart: A Needed Correction, Growth And Margin Stories Intact Amid Macro Jitters1. Consumer slowdown fears have impacted the retail sector, with Walmart shares down nearly 20% from their pre-earnings high; 2. Despite solid Q4 results and strong eCommerce growth, WMT's valuation appears stretched, leading to a hold rating; 3. Key risks include macroeconomic factors, consumer spending slowdown, and competitive pressures, which could impact margins and advertising revenue.
- Nvidia Is About To Explode: Buy The Dip Or Regret It Forever1. Nvidia's explosive growth in AI-driven solutions and data centers with a 78% YoY revenue increase makes it a strong buy despite recent pullbacks; 2. The Blackwell Ultra architecture and Dynamo library are game-changers, reinforcing Nvidia's dominance in AI infrastructure and driving future revenue growth; 3. Despite competition from tech giants developing in-house AI chips, NVDA's integrated ecosystem and advanced offerings make it indispensable.
- Pfizer Is Trading As If It's 2009 Again1. Pfizer's stock is poised for growth due to its strong pipeline, smart cost management, and recovery from COVID-19 revenue decline; 2. Recent acquisitions and product launches in oncology and vaccines strengthen Pfizer's market position and future revenue streams; 3. Despite potential risks like tariffs and drug development delays, Pfizer's current valuation is attractive, resembling 2008-2009 levels.
March 25
- Alphabet: 2 Reasons To Buy The Dip In This Incredible Long-Term Compounder (Rating Upgrade)1. Alphabet's strong financial performance, with significant revenue and net income growth, and substantial share buybacks, demonstrate its potential as a long-term compounder. 2. Despite concerns about competition in AI and search, Alphabet's integrated, AI-powered products and services continue to drive user satisfaction and revenue growth. 3. Current valuation metrics suggest GOOG is attractively priced, making it a compelling buy opportunity at ~5.8x sales and ~21x income. Given GOOG's robust growth, diversified revenue streams, and attractive valuation, we upgrade GOOG to a 'Strong Buy'.
- VICI Properties: Investors Are Misunderstanding The Earnings Report1. VICI Properties has a strong and stable cash flow due to its 100% triple net leases, high-quality tenants, and long average lease terms (41 years). 2. The company's leases offer inflation protection with rent escalations linked to CPI. 3. The recent earnings miss was due to an accounting adjustment, not a cash flow issue.
- TSMC: 2nm Is On Track For Mass Production1. TSMC's 2nm technology is on track for mass production with yields reaching 60%; 2. Apple is expected to be the first customer, maintaining a competitive edge over Intel; 3. TSMC's AI business is projected to grow by 100% year-over-year, significantly contributing to revenue growth in FY25.
- Nebius Group: One Big Reason To Rethink The Buys (Rating Downgrade)1. ARR execution missed expectations; 2. Pricing pressures from mega hyperscalers; 3. Deteriorating cash burn trends; 4. High valuations and SBC levels.