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- Tesla: No Room For Disappointment1. Tesla's aggressive valuation (62x P/CE for 2026) relies heavily on unproven self-driving/robotaxi prospects; 2. Auto sales are expected to grow 22% in 2026 with market share gains, but margin expansion faces risks; 3. Ride-hail stocks like Uber and Lyft are deemed more attractive due to lower execution risk and better value.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The semiconductor industry is grappling with severe supply chain disruptions, leading to a global chip shortage; 2. Key factors include surging demand for electronics, pandemic-related production delays, and geopolitical trade restrictions; 3. Industry leaders are responding with massive investments in new fabrication plants and diversifying manufacturing locations to mitigate risks.
- NuScale: Improvements, But The $13B Market Cap Is Not Justified1. SMIC's Q1 2024 revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, reflecting weakened semiconductor demand and pricing pressures; 2. The company attributed the decline to inventory adjustments in the industry and reduced customer orders; 3. Despite the downturn, SMIC emphasized ongoing investments in advanced process technologies to capture future growth opportunities.
- Prologis: Quietly Powering The Next Economy1. The global semiconductor industry is grappling with severe challenges due to an ongoing chip shortage; 2. Supply chain disruptions, increased demand for electronics, and geopolitical tensions are key contributing factors; 3. Companies are adopting strategies like capacity expansion and supply chain diversification to mitigate risks.
- Tech Sector Overbought For 46 Trading Days And Counting1. The tech sector has surged 45% since early April 2025, reaching all-time highs; 2. This marks the 11th instance since 1990 of the sector remaining overbought for at least 40 consecutive trading days; 3. The longest overbought streak was 68 trading days, ending in February 1999.
- S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Record High1. TSMC's 3nm process technology significantly enhances the performance and efficiency of Apple's M4 chip; 2. The advancement reinforces TSMC's leadership in semiconductor manufacturing; 3. Intensified competition in the chip industry drives innovation and market dynamics.
- Politics And The Markets 07/20/251. The article introduces a daily political discussion forum on Seeking Alpha with unmoderated, heated debates; 2. It outlines strict moderation rules prohibiting personal attacks, COVID misinformation, hate speech, and incitement to violence; 3. Emphasizes the importance of respectful interaction despite political differences and provides contact details for moderation issues.
July 19
- Canadian Natural Will See Its Already Impressive Margins Boosted By LNG Canada1. TSMC maintains dominance in semiconductor manufacturing through leadership in 3nm and upcoming 2nm process technologies; 2. Faces competition from Samsung and Intel in advanced node development and geopolitical supply chain pressures; 3. Strategic partnerships with major tech firms and continuous R&D investment reinforce its market position.
- Power Solutions International: Solid Margins, Fuel Flexibility, And A Market Still Ignoring The Cash Flow1. A groundbreaking semiconductor innovation has been achieved, enabling advanced electronic devices; 2. The breakthrough addresses key challenges in miniaturization and energy efficiency; 3. It is expected to accelerate the development of next-generation technologies like AI and quantum computing.
- How Hims & Hers Health Is Quietly Changing Healthcare1. The article discusses the role of semiconductor advancements in enabling AI-driven technologies; 2. It highlights the growing demand for specialized chips in industries like healthcare and automotive; 3. The piece emphasizes the need for innovation to address global supply chain challenges.
- Apple's AI Pivot Changes Everything (Rating Downgrade)1. Apple's Q2 FY25 financials show modest growth (5% revenue, 4.8% net earnings) driven by record services revenue ($26.6B, 75.7% margin); 2. iPhone sales stagnate (+2%) with declining market share, while facing $900M tariff risks and escalating AI R&D costs; 3. Valuation concerns persist with ~30x P/E and 2.7x PEG ratios, 46% above sector median despite limited earnings growth.
- Kinder Morgan: Earnings Guidance Raised1. The semiconductor industry is grappling with prolonged supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and pandemic-related bottlenecks; 2. Critical sectors like automotive and consumer electronics face production delays, prompting companies to diversify suppliers and increase inventories; 3. Governments and corporations are investing in regional chip manufacturing to reduce dependency on concentrated production hubs.
- Core Natural Resources: Between The Essence Of Coal And The Challenge Of Efficiency1. Core Natural Resources (CNR) was created in 2025 via the merger of Arch Resources and CONSOL Energy, integrating coal assets and logistics for market diversification; 2. Despite operational disruptions, Q1 2025 showed revenue growth and improved EBITDA, signaling integration progress; 3. The company maintains strong liquidity and capital returns (buybacks/dividends) but faces net losses from merger costs and coal price/regulatory risks.
- Nasdaq 100: 2025 Vs. 2020-20241. TSMC maintains dominance in advanced semiconductor processes with 2nm technology and beyond; 2. Global expansion faces challenges including rising costs, geopolitical tensions, and talent acquisition; 3. Competitors like Samsung and Intel are closing the gap through government subsidies and new technologies.
July 18
- Keep Calm And Carry On: Top Consumer Staples Stocks1. Renewed market volatility due to tariffs and inflation fears highlights the resilience of consumer staples stocks; 2. Essential goods demand makes consumer staples a safer investment during economic uncertainty; 3. Three 'Strong Buy' stocks with robust fundamentals and an average 7.12% dividend yield are recommended.
- SentinelOne Looks Like Palantir Before The Breakout (Double Rating Upgrade)1. SentinelOne is projected to achieve GAAP profitability within a year, driven by its AI-powered revenue model; 2. The stock trades at an attractive valuation of 5-6x sales with 25% free cash flow margins; 3. Management execution and market recognition could trigger a significant re-rating, prompting a 'Strong Buy' upgrade.
- The Great Healthcare Shake-Up: Can UnitedHealth Lead A Recovery?1. TSMC's 3nm process faces yield and cost challenges amid production scaling; 2. Apple's M4 chip adopts TSMC's 3nm technology but struggles with high costs and limited capacity; 3. Intel's 18A process advances rapidly, posing competitive pressure on TSMC in advanced node manufacturing.
- 2 Deep Value Dividend Stocks Hiding In Plain Sight1. The author highlights two under-the-radar dividend stocks offering income, growth, and secular tailwinds; 2. Both stocks are undervalued and align with long-term macro views, yet remain unknown to most investors; 3. The stocks are on the author's watchlist, considered compelling buys despite not being in their current portfolio.
- Buy Alert: Well-Covered 8% Yields That The Market Is Overlooking1. The semiconductor industry is grappling with severe supply chain disruptions, causing production delays and cost increases; 2. The global chip shortage has impacted sectors like automotive and consumer electronics, leading to reduced manufacturing output; 3. Companies are adopting strategies such as diversifying suppliers and investing in domestic production to mitigate risks.
- My Thoughts About Those June Retail Sales1. TSMC shares surged to a record high driven by strong AI-related demand; 2. Morgan Stanley raised its price target for TSMC to NT$1,080, citing optimism about AI chip growth; 3. The rally reflects broader market confidence in semiconductor companies benefiting from AI advancements.
- Why We See 100%+ Upside In SoFi Over The Next 3 Years1. SoFi demonstrates strong growth, solid unit economics, and a powerful consumer brand; 2. Projected expansion of operating margins to over 20% could drive FY27 earnings to $1 billion; 3. Stable valuation multiples suggest the stock could double or more by 2027.
- At What Price Would I Buy Energy Transfer?1. The semiconductor industry faces supply chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions and pandemic aftereffects; 2. AI and 5G advancements drive demand for advanced chips, spurring innovation; 3. Governments globally increase investments and regulations to secure semiconductor supply chains.
- How Long Will Tariff-Related Uncertainty Last? Business Execs Are Split1. Tariff-related uncertainty has surged since February 2025, particularly impacting manufacturing firms, with nearly 90% of executives in the sector reporting it in June 2025; 2. A slight majority of businesses anticipate a relatively quick resolution to trade policy uncertainty, but a significant portion expect prolonged uncertainty; 3. The article highlights sector-specific challenges and divergent corporate outlooks amid evolving trade dynamics.
- Shurgard Self Storage: Stable Business With Visible Growth Roadmap1. TSMC faces delays and challenges in its Arizona fab project due to labor shortages, cost overruns, and cultural clashes; 2. U.S. struggles with a lack of skilled workers and higher construction costs compared to Taiwan; 3. Subsidy delays and cultural mismanagement raise doubts about scaling semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.
- WCLD: Bets On The Next Cloud Computing Disruptors1. The article discusses the challenges in semiconductor manufacturing amid global supply chain disruptions; 2. It highlights advancements in AI and automation to improve production efficiency; 3. It analyzes the geopolitical competition impacting semiconductor industry strategies.
- Politics And The Markets 07/18/251. Applied Materials developed a new manufacturing technology that enhances chip performance and energy efficiency; 2. The innovation addresses challenges in producing 3nm-and-below node chips, potentially reshaping industry competition; 3. The breakthrough is expected to accelerate advancements in AI, 5G, and IoT while strengthening Applied Materials' market leadership.
July 17
- Are We Still In A Bull Market?1. The author argues the S&P 500 rally is part of a broader market correction rather than a new bull market; 2. Divergences between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indices, along with weak market breadth, suggest a distribution top; 3. Elliott Wave theory and sentiment analysis guide the forecast, with adjustments if the rally exceeds specific thresholds.
April 1
- W. P. Carey: You'll Regret Not Picking Up This 6% Yield1. W. P. Carey Inc. has successfully reorganized its portfolio, focusing on industrial and warehouse properties, enhancing its risk/reward profile and dividend growth potential. 2. The REIT's dividend pay-out ratio is in the mid-70s, with a competitive AFFO-based valuation, making it an attractive option for passive income investors. 3. With a forecasted $1.0 billion investment volume in 2025 and minimal debt maturities, W.P. Carey is poised for AFFO growth and acquisition-driven expansion.
- A Clawback To Flat1. Stocks started the week with a modest recovery, bouncing off the opening lows. Tech stocks faced pressure. 2. WTI crude oil surged 3.1% to a five-week high due to geopolitical tensions. 3. Economic data were mixed, with the Chicago PMI rising for the third month in a row, while the Dallas Fed's business activity index fell and outlook uncertainty index rose.
March 31
- Meta's Valuation Doesn't Add Up1. Meta Platforms reported $48.4B in Q4 2024 revenue, up 21% year-over-year; 2. Free cash flow reached $52.1B in 2024, with $39.2B in CapEx and $77.8B in liquidity; 3. Reality Labs posted a $5B Q4 operating loss, raising concerns about capital efficiency.
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