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February 26
- Carnival: Don't Fear Taxes1. Carnival's stock fell due to tax fears, but no immediate tax hits are expected; 2. The cruise line's strong bookings for 2025 and 2026 support a bullish outlook; 3. Carnival's net debt reduction and high EPS growth potential make it an attractive investment.
- Rocket Lab: Why I'd Wait For A Better Price1. Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a promising venture with high valuation; 2. Concerns about market cap matching future serviceable market size; 3. Potential struggle in medium-lift market and achieving desired profitability; 4. Overpriced forward price-to-sales ratios; 5. Potential 'Buy' opportunity if stock drops 20-30% without negative corporate events.
- uniQure N.V.: A Potential Huntington's Play1. uniQure's stock surged due to positive data on its Huntington's disease candidate AMT-130; 2. Hemgenix approval and new clinical programs strengthen the pipeline; 3. Cost-cutting and strategic financing extend operating runway to 2Q28.
- Dillard's: Growing Weakness And Misplaced Incentives Justify A Bearish Outlook1. Despite a 113.1% stock surge since May 2022, Dillard's revenue, profits, and cash flows have deteriorated, leading to a downgrade to 'sell'. 2. Management's focus on dividends and buybacks over operational improvements suggests short-term gains at the expense of long-term health. 3. Declining comparable store sales and transaction numbers indicate deeper issues with customer engagement and financial performance.
- Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. 2024 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation1. The article discusses the Q4 2024 earnings call presentation of Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. 2. It highlights the key financial results and performance metrics. 3. The presentation was published in conjunction with the company's stock (STRL) and is available on Seeking Alpha's website.
- Eagle Point Income: Distribution Remains Well Covered As NAV Grows1. Eagle Point Income remains a buy due to strong net investment income, low default rates, and a growing NAV. 2. EIC's portfolio, heavily focused on CLO debt investments, benefits from higher interest rates, ensuring elevated cash flows and dividend sustainability. 3. The fund's diversified portfolio and high dividend yield of around 15% make it an attractive option for income-focused investors.
February 25
- Celestica: Fueled By Relentless Catalysts1. Celestica's strong Q4 performance and robust FY2025 guidance are supported by AI tailwinds and data center spending; 2. The stock's valuation is attractive with a DCF model indicating a 38% upside potential; 3. Celestica's financial flexibility, low RSI levels, and significant momentum position it well for continued growth.
- Hims & Hers Earnings: Very Strong Business, In A Very Crowded Trade1. Hims & Hers experienced a sell-off after Q4 2024 earnings due to profit-taking and weaker-than-expected EBITDA margins; 2. The company is projected to generate over $2 billion in revenues and $350 million in free cash flow in 2025; 3. Despite regulatory challenges and competition from Amazon Pharmacy, the long-term potential remains strong.
- VICI Properties: A Quasi-Monopoly With High Return Potential1. VICI Properties has a quasi-monopoly in casino real estate with key tenants like Caesars Palace and MGM Resorts, ensuring stable and growing rental income. 2. The triple-net lease structure and long-term inflation-proof contracts provide high profit margins, stable cash flows, and minimal vacancy risk. 3. VICI's strong financials, consistent dividend growth, and attractive 5.5% dividend yield make it a compelling investment for stability and growth.
- Paranoia And Uncertainty Should Benefit Generac1. Generac is poised for growth due to rising electricity demand, climate change concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties; 2. Despite positive Q4 financials, Generac's stock remains undervalued with strong growth prospects and rising margins; 3. Generac's $500 million share repurchase plan and potential for future dividends enhance its attractiveness.
- Amplitude: With Acceleration Expected In FY25, I'm Buying In1. Amplitude's stock fell slightly after its Q4 earnings report, creating a good buying opportunity. 2. The company expects revenue acceleration in FY25 due to improving retention and churn trends in a still-choppy macro environment. 3. The company's push upmarket is helping to drive strong ARR growth with a path to further expansion.
February 24
- This Is A Grave Concern1. The author has been bullish for over two years, expecting a soft economic landing and a neutral Fed rate. 2. Consumer sentiment has dropped due to fears of tariffs and inflation. 3. The S&P Global's PMI indicates a sharp decline in service sector activity, suggesting GDP growth of just 0.6% for February.
- Why I'm Holding SMCI Heading Into The Filing Deadline, And How I'm Managing Risk1. SMCI faces a February 25 deadline with a 80% chance of timely filing; 2. Put prices surged 30%, call prices dropped 20%, and max pain sits at $45; 3. Large investors were active above $59, but the lack of buying below $56 suggests caution and potential downside risk.
- Don't Get Left Behind - The Great Rotation Into Dividend Stocks Is Here1. Despite significant market events, industrial and tech stocks have had similar returns since 2020, indicating a potential long-term rotation favoring value stocks. 2. Higher inflation and interest rates are shifting the risk/reward balance towards value stocks, making them more attractive compared to growth stocks. 3. The AI revolution and liquidity improvements temporarily boosted growth stocks, but these tailwinds may not sustain long-term outperformance.
- Rejected At All-Time Highs - Negative Expectation Breaker Means Reassessment1. The market experienced a sharp reversal at all-time highs with increased volume, indicating a heightened risk posture. 2. Growth stocks, especially in MicroSectors FANG+ ETN and IWP, showed significant damage, suggesting a shift to risk-off appetite among market makers. 3. Despite geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns, Bitcoin remains stable, but may weaken if the risk-off trend continues. 4. Current portfolio adjustments include trimming positions and maintaining a limited watch list, focusing on cash readiness for future opportunities.
- SoFi Technologies: CEO's Upgraded Guidance Supercharges My Confidence1. SoFi's stock price fell 18% post-4Q24 results despite double beat in revenue and EPS; 2. CEO Anthony Noto upgraded 2026 guidance during BofA conference; 3. Estimated EPS for 2026 is $0.76 based on upgraded guidance.
- Bullish On The Trade Desk: My Case For Upgrading To Buy1. The Trade Desk could see significant growth if Google exits the Open Internet, creating a more favorable competitive landscape; 2. Valuation metrics suggest The Trade Desk may be slightly undervalued, offering a compelling investment opportunity for long-term growth investors; 3. Several secular tailwinds could lead to increased demand for The Trade Desk's services, boosting revenue and profitability.
- Hims & Hers Declines - How The GLP-1 Market Shift Affects Growth1. Hims & Hers Health stock dropped 25% after the FDA announced the end of the semaglutide shortage; 2. Hims plans to launch a generic version of liraglutide, but its efficacy is significantly lower than semaglutide and tirzepatide; 3. Despite the setback, Hims shows strong financial health with 77% Y/Y revenue growth and no long-term debt.
- IonQ Q4 Preview: Microsoft Quantum Game Changer1. IonQ is a promising quantum computing company with strong backing; 2. Microsoft's new quantum chip accelerates the industry's timeline; 3. IonQ's Q4 earnings are crucial for investor confidence; 4. Despite high valuation, IonQ's growth potential makes it a strong buy for long-term investors.
- Exact Sciences: A Strong Q4 Reveals Signs Of A Potential Inflection Point1. Exact Sciences reported strong Q4 revenue growth, but missed EPS due to an $838M impairment charge from the Thrive acquisition. 2. Despite the negative market reaction, Exact's core business shows momentum with strong demand for Cologuard and a solid cash position of $1.04B. 3. The company has ambitious 2025 revenue guidance and expects new product launches to drive growth, aiming for sustained profitability and long-term value.
- Get Your Shopping List Ready, Possible Epic Time To Buy1. This week could be a prime opportunity to buy fast-growing stocks at discounted prices amidst a potential selling climax in an ongoing bull market. 2. Despite recent inflation fears and market volatility, strong earnings and revenue suggest continued growth. 3. Berkshire Hathaway's stock selling and Big Cap Tech downturn could trigger market declines, presenting chances to acquire high-quality stocks at lower prices.
- Wall Street Brunch: Nvidia Will Be An AI Litmus Test1. Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is crucial, with high expectations for its AI GPU segment; 2. Analysts expect EPS of $0.85 on revenue of $38.15 billion; 3. The stock market will be conducting a test of the AI rally with Nvidia's report.
February 23
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. Major U.S. indices showed mixed activity, with the Nasdaq falling over 2% and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 declining above 1.75%. 2. President Trump's proposed tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports dominated market sentiment, raising concerns about a trade war and supply chain disruptions. 3. Corporate news included Alibaba's 10% surge after strong Q3 earnings and Walmart facing scrutiny over potential Chinese tariff exposure. 4. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.57% as Fed minutes highlighted inflation risks from tariffs. 5. Bitcoin soared above $97,300 as crypto ETFs gained institutional investor interest.
- Margin Balances Suggests Risks Are Building1. The increase in margin balances is a cause for concern; 2. Retail investors are rapidly increasing leverage in ETFs and options; 3. The market is reacting to the introduction of a new virus.
- Tencent: A Potential New Bull Market Is Taking Shape1. Tencent stock is maintained as a 'Buy' due to its strong economic moat, solid growth prospects, and reasonable valuation despite recent stock price increases. 2. China's macroeconomic outlook shows signs of improvement, with GDP growth expected to be 4.6% in 2025, potentially leading to a long-term bull market. 3. Tencent's Q3 2024 results demonstrate solid growth with revenue up 8.1% YoY, operating profit up 20.3% YoY, and free cash flow up 14.5% YoY. Intrinsic value calculations suggest Tencent is undervalued, with potential growth rates justifying higher valuations.
- I Love Palantir But I'm Not Stubborn: Dropping My Rating, For Now, To 'Hold'1. The author expresses skepticism about the market's analysis of Palantir's valuation and its comparison to the dot-com crash. 2. He argues that Palantir is a powerful AI company with a large customer base and potential for growth. 3. The author acknowledges that his own views may not be shared by the majority and has downgraded his rating to 'Hold'.
- The BTC Mining Industry: Running To Stand Still1. BTC mining is a C+ business with poor fundamental economics; 2. Miners face low margins, high competition, and cyclical industry dynamics; 3. Investors should be cautious due to the industry's poor economics and high operational costs.
- S&P 500 Snapshot: Worst Day Of 20251. The S&P 500 reached two new record highs but also experienced its worst day of the year within the same week. 2. The index is now 2.13% below its record close from February 19th, 2025, and is up 2.46% year-to-date. 3. The U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.42% and the 2-year note at 4.19% as of February 21st.
- Udemy On The Rise: Inside Its Game-Changing Strategy To Dominate EdTech1. Udemy, a $1.5 billion edtech marketplace, is experiencing a strong turnaround with an 18% surge in enterprise revenue and a leap in adjusted EBITDA. 2. The company is strategically focusing on its enterprise segment and integrating AI tools. 3. With less than 10% market penetration, there's significant potential for expansion.
February 22
- My No. 1 Priority Stock: Why Nvidia's 52% Growth Is Just The Start1. Nvidia is the top stock pick for 2025 with exceptional growth potential and a 26% discount based on its PEGY ratio of 0.66. 2. Nvidia's EPS growth is projected at 52% for 2025 and 25% for 2026, with potential for higher gains due to supply constraints. 3. Nvidia is transitioning to a GPU utility with subscription-based sales, potentially maintaining a 20-25% growth rate for the next decade.