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January 27
- GXO Logistics: Short-Term Uncertainty Creates A Generational Buying Opportunity1. GXO Logistics has strong visibility due to its recurring revenue, industry-leading automation, and defensive contract structures; 2. Organic growth is rebounding, margins are expanding, market share is increasing, and GXO is on track to achieve its 2027 targets; 3. Short-term uncertainty surrounding the new CEO, regulatory review, and rejected buyout bid has created a generational buying opportunity, despite no tangible impact on GXO's underlying fundamentals.
- Erasca's Naporafenib Is Shaping Up Nicely For NRASm Melanoma1. Naporafenib, Erasca's main candidate, has Fast Track status for NRASm melanoma. 2. The company has a strong balance sheet with approximately $463.3 million in cash and equivalents as of Q3 2024. 3. SEACRAFT-1 trial indicates potentially better efficacy of Naporafenib compared to SoC and competitors. 4. Naporafenib could file for FDA approval by late 2025 or 2026. 5. ERAS has a diversified pipeline for broader RAS cancers. 6. The stock has pulled back 40.7% from its 2024 highs, making it compelling at current levels.
- ASML: It's No Longer Dead In The Water1. ASML has held onto its November lows; 2. The AI compute debate is intense; 3. TSMC's CapEx outlook and AI revenue projections are positive; 4. President Trump's partnership with Stargate is a positive step; 5. ASML investors should capitalize on the recovery.
January 26
- The Week Ahead1. The Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year is expected on Wednesday; 2. The earnings season is in full swing with major companies reporting; 3. The economic calendar is packed with updates on GDP and inflation.
- Palantir: Multiple Fresh Growth Drivers Make This A Buy1. The outlook for AI applications software spending in 2025 is positive, with a focus on curated data solutions that Palantir dominates. 2. Palantir can benefit from the $500 billion investment in the Stargate Project as enterprises increase AI workload spends. 3. A hiring spree in a key Palantir partner organization indicates an expanding ecosystem. 4. Valuation multiples are re-rating due to growth catalysts, and the stock appears undervalued. 5. Technical analysis is bullish, with the stock bouncing strongly off weekly support.
- The Fed's Worst Nightmare Is Becoming Reality1. The Fed's dovish rate cuts have led to rising manufacturing and services prices, with inflation expected to increase further over the next six months; 2. January's data indicates accelerating inflation, complicating the Fed's 2% inflation target; 3. The market expects only one rate cut in 2025, and Powell should push back on early rate cuts.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The equity market experienced volatility as President Trump asked OPEC to lower oil prices and reintroduced tariff threats on Chinese imports. 2. Despite the volatility, major indices ended the week higher. 3. Netflix surged 15% after reporting record Q4 earnings.
- Why I'm Shorting Meta Platforms - These 3 Concerns Spook Me1. Meta's aggressive AI infrastructure investments may lead to a capital-intensive model, potentially reducing free cash flow yield and increasing financial risk; 2. Changes in content moderation policies may trigger advertiser backlash, similar to the challenges faced by X (formerly Twitter), potentially impacting ad revenue; 3. The strengthening U.S. dollar poses significant currency headwinds, potentially reducing billions from Meta's top and bottom lines due to high international revenue exposure. Given these risks, the author does not anticipate Meta achieving a $2 trillion valuation in the near future and shifts to a tactical bearish position.
- Micron: Why I'm Waiting For A Dip Now (Rating Downgrade)1. Micron's stock is downgraded to 'Hold' due to recent volatility and potential correction; 2. The memory market's cycles and Micron's weak Q2 guidance suggest near-term challenges; 3. Increased CapEx and competition may pressure Micron's free cash flow and pricing power; 4. Long-term prospects remain positive with potential market share growth in HBM.
- ASML Could Surge From DeepSeek Revelations1. ASML's role in semiconductor manufacturing is crucial, driven by AI advancements, making it a key player with significant growth potential despite geopolitical challenges; 2. Open-source AI models like DeepSeek-R1 democratize AI, increasing demand for advanced chips and benefiting ASML's specialized EUV lithography tools; 3. ASML's robust financials, including a strong installed base services segment, provide stability and growth opportunities amid cyclical semiconductor market fluctuations.
- Apple Q1 Preview: iPhone Sales Are Falling1. Apple's iPhone 16 sales are underwhelming, leading to an 8.64% YTD decline; 2. Concerns about long-term innovation and competition, especially in China; 3. Analysts are pessimistic about Apple's upcoming earnings with downward EPS and revenue revisions.
- CVR Partners, LP: The Ultimate Fertilizer Play1. CVR Partners, LP is well-positioned to benefit from global trade shifts, European gas crises, and rising corn prices, increasing demand for nitrogen fertilizers. 2. Trump's tariffs and deregulation policies have enhanced UAN's competitive edge, reducing production costs and increasing strategic value in the fertilizer sector. 3. Carl Icahn's increased stake and bullish outlook indicate strong insider confidence in UAN's future growth and value appreciation.
- Week Ahead: Can The Dollar's Downside Correction Withstand The Divergence Of Policy?1. President Trump's tariff threats initially caused turmoil in the foreign exchange market; 2. The impact diminished over time; 3. The euro's sensitivity to European developments seems to be decreasing while its sensitivity to the US dollar is increasing.
January 25
- These Could Be The 10 Best Deep Value Dividend Aristocrat Bargains For February1. The market's recent pullback is over, with the S&P hitting record highs due to strong earnings growth potential through 2027. 2. Despite the high PEGY ratio, robust growth forecasts mean valuations won't necessarily trigger a bear market. 3. The 10-stock dividend aristocrats are undervalued by 37%, offering an average yield of 3.4% with potential for 78% upside in 2025 if they revert to fair value.
- What Moved Markets This Week1. The S&P 500 index reached a new record high, driven by U.S. President Trump's inauguration and strong earnings reports. 2. Trump signed several executive orders reversing policies from the Biden administration. 3. The focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's first interest rate decision of the year.
- Meta Is Chasing A New Shiny Object1. Meta's $60 billion AI investment for 2025 mirrors past overspending on Reality Labs, risking questionable returns and monetization challenges. 2. Despite Reality Labs' losses, Meta's revenue grew 10% YoY, driven by its ads business, which remains 99+% of revenue. 3. Mark Zuckerberg's control and diverse interests could impact Meta's future investment decisions, posing a significant risk.
- Nu Holdings: CEO Reveals Bold Plans (Rating Upgrade)1. Nu Holdings' shares have dropped 20%, presenting a potential investment opportunity despite Brazil's economic challenges. 2. CEO David Velez emphasizes Nu's strong market position in Brazil and outlines expansion plans. 3. Nu's entry into the Brazilian telecom sector with a revenue-sharing model with Claro reduces operational risks and leverages its customer base.
- The Bottom Fishing Club: Intel May Finally Be Ready To Rebound1. Intel is showing bullish technical momentum in early 2025, suggesting a major bottom and strong investor gains are coming this year; 2. Intel's valuation is extremely cheap compared to peers, with price to sales and tangible book value ratios at historic lows; 3. A successful restructuring, potential takeover offers, and asset spin-offs could drive significant returns for investors in 2025.
- Nu Holdings: Rapid Growth Meets Rising Profitability1. Nu Holdings, a rapidly growing neobank in Latin America, is becoming more profitable each year with impressive business metrics and a reasonable valuation. 2. Nubank's mobile-first platform disrupts traditional banking, targeting underserved younger demographics in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. 3. The company reached 110 million customers in Q3, with significant growth in Mexico, demonstrating the vast potential in underserved Latin American markets.
- GE Aerospace Q4: Firing On All Cylinders; Upgrade To 'Strong Buy'1. GE Aerospace has been upgraded to 'Strong Buy' with a fair value of $250 per share due to robust order growth and strong FY25 guidance. 2. Significant investments in the LEAP engine program and MRO facilities are key drivers of sustained growth in commercial engines and defense markets. 3. FY25 revenue is projected to grow by 12.5%, driven by Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies segments.
- CrowdStrike: All About Resilience Following The July 2024 Snafu1. Cybersecurity stocks, particularly CrowdStrike, have shown strong performance since October 2022; 2. CRWD's Q3 results were impressive with EPS and revenue beats, strong ARR growth, and resilience post-mid-year IT outage; 3. Key risks include potential weaker enterprise spending, slower customer adoption, higher competition, and possible sharp corrections on EPS misses.
- Nu Holdings: The Noise Is Real, But So Is The Potential (Rating Upgrade)1. Nu Holdings faces macroeconomic risks such as high interest rates and currency devaluation in Brazil; 2. Despite challenges, the company's strong brand, 100M+ customers, and cross-selling opportunities support long-term growth potential; 3. Nu Holdings' premium valuation is justified by efficient execution, robust growth prospects, and a scalable business model.
- Combine QQQ With This ETF To Get The Best Risk-Adjusted Returns1. QQQ has outperformed the S&P 500, offering higher total and risk-adjusted returns. 2. However, its tech concentration and high valuations introduce risks. 3. An optimal addition to QQQ is presented to enhance the Sharpe ratio and optimize risk-adjusted returns.
- AMD: I Am Buying Even More Aggressively Now (Rating Upgrade)1. A lower base allows AMD to achieve a higher estimated EPS CAGR over the next five years while trading at more attractive valuation multiples. 2. AMD's AI-focused processors and new GPU releases at CES 2025 position it well against Nvidia, with potential market share gains. 3. AI PCs are expected to boost AMD's performance this year. 4. The valuation analysis shows over 27% upside potential, with AMD trading at lower multiples and expected to outperform EPS estimates in the coming quarters. 5. The author is considering increasing their current position in AMD amidst rising negativity regarding its future prospects.
January 24
- Nvidia: An Obvious Project Stargate Beneficiary - It's Good To Be King1. President Trump's commitment to AI strengthens Nvidia's position with bipartisan support for AI protectionism policies and significant investments like Project Stargate; 2. Project Stargate's potential $500b investment in US data centers boosts Nvidia's market demand; 3. Nvidia's dominance is secured by its superior CUDA ecosystem and strategic partnerships, despite competition from AMD, Intel, and custom silicon efforts; 4. Nvidia's Blackwell chip will power next-gen AI, driving revenue growth and maintaining its leadership in the AI hardware market.
- Enbridge Vs. Suncor: The E&P Bests The Pipeline1. Suncor Energy and Enbridge are two of Canada's most discussed oil stocks. Suncor has a stronger balance sheet and better valuation, profitability, and growth metrics. 2. Enbridge is less sensitive to oil price volatility compared to Suncor. 3. Assuming oil prices remain above $60 for the next five years, Suncor is expected to deliver more value to shareholders than Enbridge.
- Rigetti Computing: Quantum Hype Meets Market Reality - A Cautious Hold1. Quantum computing stocks, particularly Rigetti Computing, have surged dramatically due to speculative hype, despite practical applications being years away. 2. Industry leaders express skepticism about near-term quantum computing applications. 3. Rigetti's unique approach and partnerships position it well, but its stock's volatility and high valuation require cautious monitoring. 4. Despite the hype, Rigetti's roadmap and AI-driven market interest suggest potential long-term gains.
- Eos Energy: This Small-Cap Will Keep Running In 2025 And Beyond1. Eos Energy Enterprises is a strong buy due to its innovative energy storage solutions and expected 10x revenue growth by 2025; 2. EOSE's business model includes Znyth battery energy storage systems and software services, creating a stable SaaS revenue stream alongside product sales; 3. Significant investments and strategic partnerships have positioned EOSE for rapid expansion and scalability.
- Nebius Group: My Updates On Avride Valuation1. The author revisits the valuation of Nebius Group, previously estimated at $8.8 billion. 2. A detailed analysis of the U.S. robotaxi market and Avride's potential within it is conducted. 3. Avride is projected to potentially hold the 2nd or 3rd position in the U.S. robotaxi market. 4. Potential investors are identified as Uber, Hyundai, Lyft, German automakers, and venture capital funds. 5. A new valuation for Avride of $3.4 billion is proposed, leading to a revised valuation for Nebius Group of $11.2 billion.
- Applied Materials: Why It May Be Too Late To Buy For Big Returns1. Applied Materials is a high-quality company with strong fundamentals and impressive financial growth. 2. Despite its long-term growth potential, AMAT's current valuation is elevated, limiting short-to-medium-term margin of safety. 3. The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to grow, supporting AMAT's EPS growth. 4. The author recommends holding off on buying AMAT stock now, expecting better entry points in future downturns.