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December 26
- AMD Accelerates Product Development To Close The Competitive Gap1. AMD is poised for strong growth driven by AI model inferencing with MI300X GPUs; 2. AMD's Data Center segment saw 122% YoY growth in Q3'24, fueled by EPYC and Instinct product sales; 3. AMD is closing the performance gap with Nvidia as the MI350 will have comparable performance with the Blackwell GPUs.
- Palantir: Halfway Through Our Top Tech Pick For The 2020s1. Palantir's strong financial performance and impressive growth are overshadowed by its high valuation, making it prudent to take profits or hold off on adding more. 2. Despite 30% YoY revenue growth and high margins, Palantir's P/E ratio over 300x and competition from giants like AWS and Google pose significant risks. 3. Palantir's valuation demands sustained high-growth rates for years, which is challenging given the law of large numbers and increasing competition.
- Five Reasons The Trump Bump May Have Peaked1. The five daily stock market return cycles I track are all pointing down, suggesting a potential end to the S&P 500's rise. 2. Aggressive Fed easing during the pandemic may have negative long-term effects on stocks. 3. Large profits taken since 2021 may have compromised future growth, with S&P 500 earnings potentially declining more than during the 2008 crisis. 4. The yield curve is signaling high risk, with potential S&P 500 declines of up to 67%. 5. Political control in Washington, similar to that during the 2008 financial crisis, may lead to a comparable downturn starting in 2025.
- Broadcom: Not Paying The $1 Trillion Price Tag1. Broadcom's AI and software market growth is strong but faces concentration risk due to reliance on a few hyperscale customers. 2. The company's AI-driven revenue growth is strong but may face margin pressures and scalability challenges. 3. Broadcom's valuation appears stretched, with a forward earnings multiple of 28.3x, suggesting limited upside and potential overvaluation.
- Paramount Resources: How It Suddenly Became Our Largest Position And Created A 27% Yield1. The author discusses the strategy of buying on the way down and slowly increasing position size, with Paramount Resources being a rare exception. 2. The combination of the company's net cash on the balance sheet and incorrect option premiums created a unique opportunity. 3. The author mentions the focus on capital preservation and the search for real yields to reduce portfolio volatility.
- Microsoft: A Deeply Undervalued AI Behemoth1. Microsoft is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI revolution due to its strategic strengths. 2. CEO Satya Nadella's leadership has led to remarkable growth, making Microsoft resilient with a balanced business mix and strong customer lock-in. 3. Despite competition and regulatory risks, Microsoft's intrinsic value suggests a 21% upside, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
December 25
- The Dividend Gift For This Christmas1. The article discusses the significance of candlelight dinners and their emotional weight, drawing a parallel to the importance of dividends in investing. 2. It highlights the High Dividend Opportunities community on Seeking Alpha, emphasizing its focus on income investing and sustainable returns. 3. The author encourages readers to join the community for exclusive ideas and guidance.
- Bad News For Super Micro Computer Shareholders: Dilution And Debt1. Super Micro Computer experienced a 73% share price increase following an extension from NASDAQ to submit delayed results. 2. Despite significant sales growth from the AI boom, SMCI faces cash-cycle issues and concerns about profitability. 3. SMCI's market share is declining, with competitors outperforming, and margins expected to contract further.
- AMD: The Valuation Makes No Sense1. AMD's shares have dipped below $120 recently, presenting an attractive risk profile despite the creation of negative investor sentiment; 2. AMD's Data Center segment shows promising growth potential with the MI300X chip, positioning it to compete with Nvidia's dominance in the AI GPU market; 3. AMD's valuation at a P/E ratio of 24.4X offers a 22% discount compared to Nvidia, making it an attractive buy before a potential recovery.
- Behavioral Biases Worsen Super Micro Computer's Sentiment1. Super Micro Computer is exploring equity or debt options after raising $2 billion earlier this year, risking shareholder dilution. 2. Removal from the index has intensified selling pressure, amplifying negative sentiment and triggering institutional and retail sell-offs. 3. Reporting delays for FY2024 and Q1 FY2025 have raised governance concerns and eroded investor trust significantly. 4. Loss aversion and confirmation bias are driving panic selling, worsening price momentum and market sentiment for SMCI.
- How To Become A Real Estate Tycoon (My Blueprint Revealed)1. Embracing negativity and learning from setbacks have fueled the author's journey to become a top analyst on Seeking Alpha, focusing on fundamental analysis. 2. Second-level thinking, as taught by mentors like Chuck Carnevale, is crucial for long-term investment success, emphasizing earnings over emotions. 3. REITs, particularly Realty Income, offer strong potential due to their scale, diversification, and disciplined risk management, making them attractive for 2025.
- Google Is Still One Of The Best Mega-Cap Stocks To Buy1. Alphabet Inc. is maintained as a 'Buy' due to strong financial performance, growth in advertising and cloud units, and exaggerated legal risks. 2. Q3 FY2024 results show 37% YoY EPS growth, driven by robust advertising, Google Cloud, and subscription services. 3. Google's legal risks from the DOJ antitrust case are likely overstated, with potential counterproposals mitigating negative impacts on revenue and operating income.
- Vistra: Growth Is Skyrocketing But Overvalued At The Moment1. Vistra Corp is a leader in the energy sector with strong growth and commitment to green initiatives, but appears overvalued. 2. Despite impressive revenue and income growth, VST's high valuation ratios suggest the stock is trading at a premium. 3. Vistra's strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency drive long-term stability, but rising debt and unpredictable weather pose risks.
- 10.1%-Yielding Monthly Retirement Dividends From Fixed Income: JPC1. Retirees prefer diversified fixed-income portfolios for stable income and risk mitigation; 2. JPC's portfolio is well-diversified across asset types and geographies, with a significant portion in investment-grade securities; 3. The article examines the fund's current valuation to determine if its 10.1% yield is suitable for a retirement portfolio.
- Palantir: This Is Even Worse Than The 2021 Bubble1. Palantir Technologies Inc. is currently trading at a 65x sales valuation, making it one of the most overvalued stocks among growth peers. 2. Despite strong revenue growth and GAAP profitability, the stock's valuation is unsustainable even under optimistic growth scenarios. 3. The current valuation offers a highly asymmetric return profile to the downside, warranting a 'strong sell' rating.
December 24
- If You Could Only Buy One: 5 Top Dividend Stocks For The Next 10 Years1. The author discusses his dislike for New Year's Eve and market predictions, focusing instead on a reader-selected stock for a 10-year investment horizon. 2. He analyzes various picks, considering long-term prospects and potential outperformance. 3. The companies chosen are believed to have qualities crucial for long-term investment success, regardless of economic uncertainty or market volatility.
- If I Could Only Give You 3 Investments For Christmas1. The author compares stock picking to gift giving, emphasizing the selection of investments that contribute to happiness, longevity, and value. 2. He shares three specific investments he would recommend at the moment. 3. The article promotes the High Yield Investor service, offering access to exclusive portfolios and educational content.
- Altria: I Couldn't Have Been More Wrong About This Stock (Rating Upgrade)1. I shifted from recommending Altria as a sell to a strong buy due to the company's unexpected resilience and competitive positioning; 2. The market has not fully priced in Altria's future revenue and earnings potential; 3. I am confident that Altria's top-line erosion can be curtailed and will turn positive by mid-next year.
- Why AMD's 2025 Could Be Worse Than 2024: AI Dreams Are Crumbling1. AMD is facing significant competitive challenges in the AI and GPU markets, struggling against NVIDIA's dominance and custom silicon solutions from major cloud providers. 2. NVIDIA continues to dominate the AI accelerator market, which could limit AMD's projected market share to below 5%. 3. AMD's PC processor market may see a slowdown in 2025, with Intel and Qualcomm posing tough competition, especially in enterprise segments.
- AMD: Well-Positioned To Capitalize On New AI Paradigm1. Advanced Micro Devices has transformed into a major player in the data center, enterprise-grade CPU, GPU, and adaptive SoCs markets; 2. The AI revolution, especially OpenAI's o3 breakthrough, positions AMD's Zen-based EPYC processors and Instinct GPU accelerators for significant future growth; 3. Despite risks from NVIDIA's ecosystem and industry cyclicality, AMD's accelerating momentum in AI hardware and data center segments suggests strong growth potential.
- Rexford: Debt Metrics, Pricing Power, Pessimistic Valuation Make The Stock Undeniable1. Rexford Industrial is a focused Southern California REIT, leveraging management expertise to upscale properties and drive rent growth. 2. Management's deep industry experience and founder involvement ensure this focus on quality and valued added. 3. Rexford's valuation is attractive, trading at a significant discount compared to most peers, while its debt runway and potential for substantial future growth are unmatched. 4. Despite geographic concentration risks, Rexford's fundamentals and market positioning justify a Strong Buy rating.
- GGN: Sometimes Markets Give Buying Opportunities1. The price drop of GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust presents a buying opportunity due to end-of-year market volatility and strategic management decisions. 2. The fund's strategy involves holding energy and mining stocks while selling short calls to generate cash for dividends. 3. Key fundamentals include gold and crude oil prices, with gold expected to rise due to lower Fed rates and geopolitical unrest, while oil's future remains uncertain. 4. Despite current market volatility, the fund's strong dividend and effective management of option strike prices make it a promising long-term investment.
- Exxon Mobil: Buy The Drop Opportunity1. Exxon Mobil's acquisition of Pioneer Resources expands its Permian Basin reach, doubling its acreage and enhancing its growth prospects. 2. The recent share price drop due to the Federal Reserve's slower rate cut pace for 2025 presents a buying opportunity for long-term dividend investors. 3. Exxon Mobil has the largest free cash flow among large-cap energy firms, making it a strong value proposition despite recent market volatility. 4. Risks include potential declines in petroleum prices and production efficiency in the Permian. 5. Shares trade just slightly above the 3-year average forward P/E ratio and have an attractive risk profile on the drop.
- Mosaic: Bullish Case Remains Strong Despite Q3 Miss, Tariff Concerns1. Mosaic faced production disruptions due to hurricanes and electrical issues, but these were resolved quickly, causing limited long-term damage to their facilities. 2. The company missed Q3 earnings estimates, but management expects potash prices to rebound and projects stronger sales in Q4. 3. Potential 25% tariffs on Canadian potash pose a significant risk, but I believe Congress will push back due to the importance of potash for American agriculture.
- Salesforce: Buy The Dip1. Salesforce's significant growth and AI adoption justify a 'Buy' rating; 2. Despite slowing sales growth, Salesforce's gross margins are improving; 3. Salesforce's valuation is attractive with substantial profit growth expected in 2025.
- Quantum Stocks: Avoid Rigetti Computing And Buy IonQ Instead1. Quantum computing stocks have been performing well recently, with significant returns in just one month; 2. The article compares the approaches of IonQ and Rigetti Computing and their market positioning; 3. Both stocks are expensive, but IonQ's proven monetization and strong financial health make it a cautious buy, while Rigetti Computing is recommended to hold.
December 23
- Five Reasons Why You Should Invest In Small Caps Right Now1. Small caps are currently on a rally due to the Federal Reserve's rollback of interest rates and anticipation of aggressive fiscal policies under Trump; 2. They offer less concentration risk and better valuations compared to overvalued large caps; 3. This article outlines the top five reasons for investing in small caps versus large-cap stocks; 4. Investing in small caps can complement a diversified portfolio; 5. Utilizing Seeking Alpha's Quant Ratings can help identify high-performing stocks with strong growth potential.
- Why 2025 Could Be A Breakout Year For Nvidia1. Nvidia's shares have corrected recently, presenting an opportunity for long-term investors. 2. Google's quantum computing breakthrough showcases rapid technological progress, benefiting Nvidia's dominant position in the AI GPU market. 3. NVDA's free cash flow could reach $100B/year by 2025, with significant shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks.
- Nvidia's Fort Is Sieged By Big Tech, China, And Startups, But It's A Two-Year Buy (Rating Upgrade)1. Nvidia's moat is under pressure from startups, Broadcom, AMD, and Big Tech's in-house AI chips, with inference markets diversifying and startups gaining niche traction. 2. U.S. restrictions and China's push for domestic AI chips cut Nvidia's China revenue share from 24.6% in 2022 to 12.2% in 2025, weakening growth prospects. 3. Despite a $5.83T 2027 EV forecast, slowing growth and cyclical risks could spur volatility; current EV of $3.13T offers a 24.21% margin of safety for now.
- Expect A Roller Coaster Stock Market In 20251. The S&P 500 is overvalued and expected to see a near 'round trip' in 2025; 2. The Nasdaq 100 is a better index than the S&P 500, with historical outperformance; 3. Prediction involves analyzing different scenarios, not being stubborn; 4. Reacting to scenarios is crucial for risk management and seeking excellent performance.