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January 13
- The Market Is Likely Wrong About Trump And Inflation - Here's Why1. The article discusses the potential inflationary impact of the incoming Trump presidency; 2. It analyzes specific policies that are considered inflationary and their potential effects; 3. The author suggests ways to incorporate these insights into a portfolio with stock picks.
- Recession Alert: What I Learned From The Global Financial Crisis1. The author's conservative approach to stock-picking is influenced by personal financial losses during the Great Recession; 2. The 18-year real estate cycle suggests a potential mild recession in late 2025 or early 2026; 3. The author recommends focusing on REIT sectors with pricing power and reducing exposure in certain sectors.
- Visa: The 2025 Investment Thesis And Key Debates Entering The New Year1. Visa is underperforming due to regulatory concerns and growth runway doubts, but these are expected to ease in 2025; 2. Visa's FY24 results were strong with 11.7% revenue growth and 16% EPS growth; 3. Value-Added Services and New Flows are underappreciated drivers with significant potential; 4. Visa's current valuation is attractive, trading below Mastercard and historical averages, with a price target of $360 per share based on CY26 earnings.
- QQQI: High Yield With Tax Efficiency1. The NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF aims to generate income by holding Nasdaq 100 stocks, primarily mega-cap tech companies. 2. QQQI reduces volatility by limiting upside potential and paying out regular income through selling options against the Nasdaq 100 index. 3. NDX options offer tax efficiency, being taxed at a lower rate than ordinary options income. 4. QQQI has shown slight underperformance compared to the Qs but offers a significant downside cushion and potential for income generation.
- The Challenges Of The Energy Transition And 26 Companies That Might Benefit From It1. The global energy transition is leading to significant investments in renewable energy, benefiting companies across various sectors of the energy industry. 2. Grids and storage are critical to the success of the transition, with a focus on modernizing and flexibilizing energy infrastructure. 3. This article examines the challenges of the energy transition and identifies companies in different sectors that could benefit from it.
- Lululemon: I Am Not Selling My Shares Yet1. Lululemon's stock has surged 27% since the last 'buy' rating, but now appears fully priced, prompting a 'Hold' rating with a $403 target. 2. The Americas business shows signs of bottoming, with improved sales trends and positive momentum in Canada, while international markets continue to accelerate. 3. Profitability has expanded with strong operational discipline, but unknown factors like tariffs and rising yields could impact consumer demand and Lululemon's growth plans.
- Apple's Bold Move: Avoiding The AI Arms Race1. Apple's decision to avoid the AI arms race is a strategic move; 2. Focusing on local, on-device AI systems will bring long-term value; 3. Frontier models are competing for Apple's business with favorable terms.
- An Important Warning For These 6-20% Dividend Yields1. High-yield, high-growth stocks are generally attractive, but the dynamic high-yield, high-growth segment of the market has recently faced significant challenges; 2. The author discusses how they are navigating these turbulent waters; 3. The article encourages readers to join High Yield Investor for exclusive portfolio access and educational content.
January 12
- The Long-Term Care Insurance Debacle -- Premiums Increase As Much As 271%1. The need for extended long-term care is a concern for retirees to plan for. 2. Many retirees turn to long-term care insurance policies to mitigate this risk. 3. However, some policyholders are discovering that the premiums are increasing significantly, up to 271% in some cases.
- Market Madness: 3 Blue-Chip Dividend Steals You Can't Ignore1. The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs last month, exceeding expectations, suggesting a strong economy but reducing the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts. 2. Rising long-term rates increase borrowing costs and competition for stocks, negatively impacting rate-sensitive sectors like utilities, real estate, and consumer staples. 3. Despite a challenging market environment, equities still offer value, particularly in high-quality blue-chip stocks.
- Wall Street Week AheadThe first full trading week of the year will be busy for Wall Street, with inflation being a key focus. Key economic reports and earnings season will be in focus, including reports from major lenders and retail companies. The article also mentions the ICR retail conference and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.
- Quantum Stocks, Including Rigetti Computing, Fell After Comment By VIP, But Reactions Were Irrational1. Rigetti Computing and other quantum stocks plummeted after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang suggested that good things were far in the future. 2. Investors need to consider the context of Huang's remarks and remember that these investments are more like angel/venture capital situations than conventional companies. 3. Rigetti is the leading company in the superconducting protocol within quantum computing, which is fast but presents more error challenges. Choosing Rigetti's protocol involves accepting higher risk for greater growth potential. 4. For those who understand quantum computing investing, the author rates Rigetti 'Buy'.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The 2025 markets are experiencing pressure due to the Fed's monetary policy shift; 2. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell on Friday; 3. The global bond selloff pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.74%; 4. Bitcoin's selloff continued despite crypto trends remaining in focus; 5. Tariff threats are intensifying global tensions.
- Why I Am Doubling Down On My Sizable PDI Position1. The PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund's valuation dropped due to the central bank's cautious interest rate outlook, presenting a buying opportunity with a 14% yield. 2. The fund's price correction is seen as temporary, with a premium to NAV narrowing, signaling a market overreaction to delayed rate cuts. 3. The fund's portfolio of rate-sensitive fixed income instruments is poised to benefit from future interest rate cuts, supporting the investment thesis.
- 2 'Must-Buy' Turnaround Plays For 20251. The author avoids turnarounds but invests in high-quality companies with temporary setbacks. 2. Currently, the author is overweight on LVMH and ASML, both facing macroeconomic headwinds but poised for recovery in 2025. 3. LVMH's shares are down due to China's economic slowdown, but strong fundamentals and potential M&A activity make it an attractive buy. 4. ASML, despite export restrictions and slow non-AI recovery, offers strong EPS growth potential, making it a compelling long-term investment.
- Talen Energy: Powering Sustainable Growth1. Talen Energy Corp. has a strong portfolio with a total generation capacity of 10.7 GW; 2. The company has shown remarkable financial turnaround, shifting from a $77M net loss in Q3 2023 to a $168M net income in Q3 2024; 3. Strategic initiatives like asset sales and refinancing have enhanced liquidity and shareholder returns, with a $1B share repurchase program.
- Consolidation Continues1. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has logged net gains during the first five days of the year 47 times. 2. The first five days of January and the 'January Barometer' are statistically notable, but its failure rate as an indicator for bearish outcomes is also noteworthy. 3. While Wall Street analysts continue to expect another bullish return year for stocks, December and January have been rather weak as markets consolidate the gains following the election.
January 11
- REIT Van Winkle: 2 REITs To Own For The Next 20 Years1. REITs like Federal Realty and Realty Income have shown resilience with strong balance sheets and diversified portfolios; 2. Federal Realty, known as a Dividend King, has consistently increased dividends for 57 years; 3. Realty Income offers a well-covered 6.1% dividend yield, making it a solid choice for long-term wealth creation.
- Eli Lilly: Still Much Room To Ride The Weight-Loss Wave1. Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market dominance is supported by superior efficacy and strong manufacturing investments, positioning it as a leader alongside Novo Nordisk with forecasted revenue growth to $75B by 2027. 2. A conservative valuation model estimates Eli Lilly's stock to achieve a 25% CAGR over two years, with a fair price target of $1,200 by January 2027. 3. Key risks include competition from emerging GLP-1 drugmakers and potential delays or setbacks in next-gen oral GLP-1 drugs like Orforglipron, but the stock's 25% margin of safety underpins my rating.
- Rigetti Computing: The Quantum Revolution Is Just Getting Started1. Rigetti Computing is a leading player in full-stack quantum computing, developing quantum computers over the cloud. 2. The company aims to enhance its market position with significant milestones in 2025, including a 36-qubit and 100-qubit system. 3. Quantum computing has a promising market potential, with TAM expected to grow from $1.1B in 2022 to $7.6B in 2027.
- AGNC Investment: Now Is The Time To Be Greedy (Rating Upgrade)1. The author recently expressed caution about AGNC's payout sustainability and high P/TBV ratio amidst bullish Wall Street sentiment. 2. New developments have reduced or removed these concerns, with valuation largely reverting to the mean in terms of P/TBV ratio. 3. The long-short yield spread has turned positive, indicating good odds for it to remain so in the near future.
- Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week Of January 121. This article provides a weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers. 2. It highlights companies that have changed their dividends, those with upcoming ex-dividend dates, and companies with upcoming pay dates. 3. The author mentions additional resources available through The Dividend Kings marketplace service.
- Linde Keeps Its Momentum Alive1. Linde plc is a potential buy with steady growth over 10 years; 2. The industrial gases market is expected to grow significantly due to clean energy and decarbonization; 3. Linde's strong financials and proactive management strategies position it well for future growth.
- Reorganization And Beautiful FCF Growth Make Digital Turbine A Buy1. Digital Turbine, Inc. is undergoing a significant reorganization, exiting legacy platforms to focus on more profitable business lines, promising future free cash flow growth. 2. The company's tools, such as SingleTap and Application Media, enhance app installs and monetization, making it attractive to OEMs and investors. 3. Despite recent revenue declines due to strategic exits, APPS shows strong free cash flow growth and trades at attractive valuation multiples, making it a buy.
- Politics And The Markets 01/11/251. This is a forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha; 2. The comments are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site; 3. The discussion can get very heated, but personal attacks are not allowed.
January 10
- Alibaba Remains In Play With 2025 Underway1. Despite mixed financial results, Alibaba's revenue and net income have grown, justifying its continued 'Buy' rating due to its attractive valuation and growth potential. 2. Taobao and Tmall Group saw revenue growth, but profits declined due to investments in user experience. 3. The Cloud Intelligence Group showed promising growth and profitability.
- USA: Better Alternatives Available (Downgrade)1. Liberty All-Star Equity has underperformed compared to a DIY portfolio using the SPY ETF, confirming the author's 2023 prediction. 2. Some US 'value' managers hold high P/E stocks, making the fund vulnerable to market shocks. 3. The author recommends high-yield alternatives like QDPL and JAAA for better returns. 4. Given the fund's poor historical performance and high valuations, the author advises a relative sell and better-performing alternatives.
- U.S. Rates Heading Deeper Into The Zone Of Interest1. The Federal Reserve has cut the funds rate by 100bp in the current rate cut cycle; 2. The 10-year rate has risen by approximately 100bp over the same period; 3. Long-term SOFR rates are now trading at above neutral valuations, indicating potential for positive carry opportunities.
- Occidental Petroleum: A Top Buffett Stock On Sale1. Warren Buffett has been purchasing Occidental Petroleum shares for years; 2. The stock has a significant discount to Buffett's average cost; 3. Occidental Petroleum has high profitability and commendable growth rates.
- A Wall Of Worry For The World Economy1. The world economy faces significant downside risks, particularly due to a constellation of major economic and geopolitical risks. 2. The main risk in the United States is the potential for Donald Trump to follow through on his economic promises, which could include a spike in import tariffs. 3. This situation poses a significant threat to the troubled and export-intensive Chinese and European economies.