1. The world economy faces significant downside risks, particularly due to a constellation of major economic and geopolitical risks. 2. The main risk in the United States is the potential for Donald Trump to follow through on his economic promises, which could include a spike in import tariffs. 3. This situation poses a significant threat to the troubled and export-intensive Chinese and European economies.

1. Rising interest rates and maturing U.S. debt pose risks to the economy and stock market; 2. Elevated bond yields make the market vulnerable to further increases in long-term bond rates; 3. Inflation remains a critical risk, potentially leading to higher fed funds rates and bond yields, negatively impacting stock prices.

1. Market complacency and low inflation expectations pose risks due to potential unforeseen economic disruptions. 2. Consumer weakness and labor market concerns signal elevated economic risks, with defensive stocks outperforming discretionary ones. 3. Despite these risks, high-quality companies continue to focus on shareholder value, making strategic buy-and-hold investments attractive.