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February 5
- Nvidia: The One Catalyst No One's Pricing In1. Nvidia's integration of hardware and software positions it as a key player in AI and serverless computing; 2. The DeepSeek model reduces AI model costs, enhancing Nvidia's ecosystem; 3. Nvidia's dominance in GPU-accelerated cloud instances and partnerships ensure robust demand and scalability for its AI solutions.
February 4
- Nvidia: Thank You DeepSeek1. Nvidia's stock dropped 17% following news of DeepSeek's cost-effective AI model, raising concerns about AI CAPEX spending and the valuation of US tech companies. 2. Despite the market's reaction, the author remains bullish on Nvidia, highlighting its technological advantage and aggressive product cycles. 3. DeepSeek's claims may be exaggerated, but Nvidia's long-term growth prospects remain strong with expected revenue growth and high net margins. 4. The AI race is intensifying, benefiting NVDA as CAPEX spending on AI infrastructure continues to rise, presenting a buying opportunity.
- Palantir Earnings: Why I'm Changing My Stance (Rating Upgrade)1. Palantir's stock is valued at 115x forward free cash flow, but its exceptional growth and AI capabilities justify a bullish outlook. 2. The company's Q4 earnings report was strong, with commercial revenues up 64% y/y, demonstrating its ability to turn AI into actionable insights. 3. Palantir's balance sheet is robust, with $5.2 billion in cash and no debt, supporting its high valuation despite competitive risks.
- Apple: Premium Valuations Appear Unjustified1. Apple's iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence have failed to trigger an AI-driven upgrade cycle, leading to lower revenue and profit growth. 2. Apple faces challenges in China due to competition and potential Trump tariffs. 3. Consumers are extending smartphone upgrade cycles, which may slow Apple's revenue growth. 4. Based on DCF valuation and historical multiples, Apple appears overvalued, suggesting a potential 40% decline in stock price.
- Intel: AI Dominance Is A Post-2027 Aspiration1. Intel's Q4 results were better than expected but still showed declines in revenue and margins, highlighting competitive pressures and market challenges. 2. The company's 2025 outlook focuses on damage control, with significant improvements not expected until 2026-2027, particularly in the foundry business. 3. Intel's product timeline is being rationalized to align with production capabilities, but delays and high execution risks persist, especially in AI and consumer chips.
- General Mills Makes For A Sweet Treat For Your Portfolio1. Despite recent underperformance, General Mills remains undervalued and has a stable business model; 2. Revenue growth has been inconsistent due to lower volumes and competitive pressures, but price increases have helped; 3. Profitability metrics show mixed results, but cash flow has improved, and strategic moves like divestitures are expected to enhance financial stability.
- Amazon: Tariff Risk Could Be Offset By An Improved Competitive Position1. Amazon's diversified business model positions it for long-term growth and consistent market-beating returns; 2. Q3'24 results showed exceptional growth and profitability; 3. Despite macro uncertainties, Amazon is set for another year of double-digit growth and expanding margins.
- Zuckerberg Is Betting Big On AI, But Meta's Stock Price Is High1. Meta Platforms has shown impressive growth with a 33% increase in stock value and strong financial results; 2. Despite the positive performance, the stock is overvalued with a high valuation multiple of 30; 3. Meta's revenue growth is driven by increased ad prices and impressions, but future growth depends on new revenue streams like Threads and AI glasses.
- Palantir Soars After Blowing Away Q4 Estimates1. Palantir Technologies reported a strong earnings beat, with revenue up 36% YoY and EPS beating estimates by 30%; 2. The company closed 129 deals worth at least $1 million in Q4, indicating robust future revenue; 3. Despite strong operational performance, Palantir's high valuation makes it less attractive compared to other high-growth AI companies.
- Nvidia: Buying The Dip Could Be Very Painful1. Nvidia and the AI industry have been shaken by recent announcements from DeepSeek, Alibaba's Qwen 2.5-Max, and ByteDance's Doubao-1.5-pro; 2. There is uncertainty about whether computing growth can offset the massive decline in AI inference costs; 3. Nvidia's stock is currently modestly bullish, but the company may face margin and revenue pressure in the near term.
February 3
- Passive Income For Life: 3 Dividend Stocks To Retire On Forever1. The author emphasizes long-term investments with stability, income, and growth; 2. Despite market volatility, balanced portfolios and high-quality assets are favored; 3. Three retirement-friendly stocks are highlighted: one with high yield, one defensive, and one top REIT.
- JEPQ: No Longer That Attractive1. The author downgrades JEPQ to a Hold due to better tax advantages, consistent distributions, and stronger total returns offered by other NASDAQ 100 income funds. 2. JEPQ's distributions are taxed as ordinary income, unlike funds like QQQI and GPIQ that use tax-loss harvesting for more tax-efficient returns. 3. The introduction of 0DTE funds has provided alternatives with higher yields and stronger upside capture in the NASDAQ 100.
- Lam Research: Here's The Price I'll Start Buying At1. Lam Research's Q2-2025 earnings exceeded expectations with strong revenue and EPS growth; 2. The stock's valuation is elevated, but a more attractive entry point could be in the $70-75 range; 3. A potential long-term buying opportunity could arise if the stock's valuation drops closer to historical levels.
- Intel: Excessive Safety Margin1. Intel reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, with shares surging 3.7% in after-hours trading; 2. The company's Q1'25 revenue outlook missed expectations but only slightly; 3. Intel's valuation remains attractive with a forward P/E ratio of 12X, suggesting a high safety margin.
- Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: Floating Rate Exposure Set To Lower Yield1. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund has benefited from high interest rates but faces risks as rates are expected to decrease. 2. The fund's strategy focuses on senior secured loans to stable mid-sized businesses and employs leverage to enhance dividends. 3. A significant portion of MSDL's yield is tied to floating rates, which could shrink if the Fed lowers rates, impacting net interest margins.
- Alamos: A Tasty Morsel For Agnico Eagle1. Alamos Gold's robust financials, with a 41% YoY revenue increase and 100% EPS growth, position it as a prime investment candidate. 2. The company's long mine life, low ASIC, and high-quality assets in stable jurisdictions add to its appeal. 3. Agnico Eagle's history of strategic acquisitions and strong financial position make a takeover of Alamos plausible and beneficial.
February 2
- Wall Street Week Ahead1. Investors will be busy with a plethora of U.S. data next week, with the jobs report on Friday being the highlight. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December will be released on Tuesday. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment reading will be released on Friday. Wholesale inflation in the European Union will be released on Wednesday, followed by retail sales on Thursday. 2. Earnings season will continue with notable companies like Alphabet, Palantir Technologies, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, and Qualcomm reporting results. 3. The earnings spotlight includes companies like Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, IDEXX Laboratories, Tyson Foods, and Clorox on Monday, and Alphabet, Merck, PepsiCo, Advanced Micro Devices, and Amgen on Tuesday.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The market experienced volatility with the 'fear gauge' rising as China's DeepSeek AI challenges Western AI models. 2. Despite early-week dips, indices recovered, with the Nasdaq up 2.66%, S&P 500 up 1.62%, and the Dow up 1.34%. 3. US Treasury yields remained stable, and the Fed held rates, while U.S. GDP growth was slower than expected and PCE rose 2.3% Q/Q.
- Tesla: No Safety Margin1. Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter; 2. Despite solid deliveries and production growth, the stock remains overvalued; 3. BYD surpassed Tesla in global BEV deliveries and has a stronger gross margin profile; 4. The potential slowdown in EV adoption poses a significant risk to Tesla's ambitious delivery targets; 5. Tesla's mixed earnings report and high valuation make it an unattractive investment.
- Baidu: The AI Catalyst I've Been Waiting For Is Finally Here (Rating Upgrade)1. Baidu's expected shift from AI affordability to AI monetization in 2025 justifies upgrading Baidu to a Buy rating. 2. Baidu's AI Cloud and Intelligent Driving businesses, along with the ERNIE bot, are poised for monetization, leveraging strong user acquisition and market share. 3. Despite expected revenue contraction in 2024, Baidu's valuation at 9x 2025 earnings looks attractive, with potential for revenue and earnings growth.
- Coinbase: Market Underestimating A Blockbuster Quarter1. Coinbase is expected to exceed Wall Street revenue estimates by 26% and EPS estimates by 407% for Q4 2024. 2. Consumer volumes surged in Q4 2024, supported by institutional adoption and diversified revenue streams. 3. FASB accounting changes are expected to boost profits by an additional ~$600M. 4. Coinbase's anticipated inclusion in the S&P 500 in March will trigger significant buying from ETFs and mutual funds, driving at least $2.5 billion in demand.
- Permian Resources: Don't Forget Waha Leverage1. Permian Resources faced low price realizations in 2024 due to negative Waha prices; 2. The company's free cash flow could see a significant boost with modest increases in natural gas prices; 3. New pipeline projects in 2025 and 2026 should alleviate capacity issues and improve price realizations.
- February 2025 Monthly1. China unveiled DeepSeek, challenging other advanced language model AIs and questioning the effectiveness of technology curbs; 2. U.S. elites' skepticism and reluctance to replace the UK in international finance indicate the 'Open Door' policy is not ready for prime time; 3. The Russian ruble's 15% appreciation is a distortion, but its GDP weight in BWCI is only 2.4% according to the World Bank.
- S&P 500 Snapshot: See-Saw Week Ends On Sour Note1. The S&P 500 experienced a volatile week with a 1.0% loss from the previous Friday; 2. The U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.58% and the 2-year note at 4.22%; 3. Volatility was driven by major developments including the DeepSeek threat, the Federal Reserve's decision, big tech earnings, and renewed uncertainty.
- Politics And The Markets 02/02/251. This is a forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha; 2. It is published every market day; 3. The comments are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site.
February 1
- Buy Low, Win Big: 2 Dividend Stocks I'm Buying Hand Over Fist1. The S&P 500 has outperformed global stocks since 1988, especially post-Great Financial Crisis. 2. Goldman Sachs' ISG supports overweighting US stocks due to economic and structural advantages, despite predicting lower future returns. 3. Focus on undervalued dividend growers in North America for market outperformance with minimal risk.
- Buy Land, They Don't Make It Anymore: 3 'Dirt' Cheap Big Dividends And Buybacks1. Land has proven to be an excellent long-term risk-adjusted investment; 2. There are numerous opportunities to buy land at a steep discount right now; 3. Three compelling opportunities are shared, yielding up to 7.3% with big buybacks involved.
- What Moved Markets This Week1. The U.S. stock market closed January with a nearly 3% advance despite a 1% retreat on the last trading day of the month. 2. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's low-cost language model posed a challenge to U.S. tech giants. 3. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady after three consecutive cuts raised inflation concerns. 4. The Q4 earnings season saw major tech companies reporting results.
- Berkshire Hathaway: Tough Comparison Ahead1. Berkshire Hathaway is expected to deliver strong performance in 2024; 2. Future earnings will face tough comparisons with flat EPS projection between 2025 and 2027; 3. The company has halted share repurchases and holds a record cash position, signaling valuation risks and lack of deployment opportunities.
- DeepSeek Crashes The AI Party: Story Break, Change Or Shift?1. DeepSeek's sudden entry into the AI conversation has the potential to alter the AI narrative; 2. The proliferation of potential AI applications has increased the market for AI products and services; 3. The author's early investment in Nvidia and other Mag Seven stocks has allowed him to capitalize on the AI boom over the past two years.