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February 19
- Arista Networks Earnings: Not Enough Upside For This Inflection Investor1. Arista Networks had a strong 2024 but is currently overvalued at 32x forward non-GAAP operating profits; 2. Despite strong AI networking prospects, much of ANET's growth is already priced in, and operating margins are showing signs of compression; 3. The company's balance sheet flexibility is notable, but the risk-reward balance doesn't justify a bullish stance at this valuation.
- Pfizer Stock's Upside Got Bigger1. Pfizer's stock is rated 'Buy' with a projected 45% upside due to strong EPS growth and cost reduction initiatives; 2. Q4 FY2024 results showed significant earnings beats, with non-COVID sales up 12% YoY and adjusted EPS beating consensus by 37%; 3. Pfizer's robust R&D pipeline is expected to drive future growth and offset patent expirations.
- The Kraft Heinz Surprise: Outshining Defensive Packaged Foods Over Next 5 Years1. Kraft Heinz's underperformance has scared away investors, but offers attractive yields; 2. The company has reduced net debt and improved financial stability; 3. Supported by Berkshire Hathaway and stable cash flows, the stock is rated a Buy under $30 with a potential price double over five years.
- Does The Gold Bull Run Have Further To Go?1. Gold has experienced a significant bull run, with prices jumping by nearly 30% since January 2024; 2. Global instability, central bank purchases, and AI demand could continue to impact gold prices; 3. Despite potential headwinds, strong global demand and a high gold-silver ratio suggest further upside for gold.
- British American Tobacco: The Non Combustible Shift Still Isn't Sparking1. The author downgrades British American Tobacco's rating from strong buy to hold due to slower-than-expected shift to non-combustible products; 2. Combustibles still account for 80% of BAT's revenue, with a significant decline in volumes expected over the next decade; 3. The current high dividend yield is at risk, as 10-year returns underperform the S&P500 and peers like Philip Morris and Japan Tobacco.
- AMD: Betting On The Next AI Chip To Boost Sales Momentum1. AMD's recent earnings report fell short of Wall Street expectations due to lower-than-expected Data Center sales. 2. Despite a 69% YoY growth in data center revenue, it missed the consensus estimate of $4.14 billion. 3. AMD's management has announced the early launch of MI350 chips to boost sales momentum. 4. AMD stock has dropped nearly 50% since its peak in early 2024, making it an attractive bet if the company can exceed AI chip sales expectations.
- Palantir - 92 Times Sales Is Absurd (Rating Downgrade)1. Palantir's stock is trading at 92 times sales and 617 times GAAP earnings. 2. Its free cash flow is $0.51 per share in the TTM period. 3. The current stock price would take decades to justify based on its historical 25% FCF growth rate.
February 18
- Intel's Takeover Tantrum Is Gathering Speed1. Taiwan Semiconductor is exploring a JV with Intel's Foundry business; 2. Broadcom is interested in acquiring INTC's design assets; 3. All deals and potential joint venture plans are in early stages.
- Forget SCHD: These Big Dividends Offer Higher Yields And Faster Growth1. SCHD is a strong dividend ETF, but there are alternatives with higher yields and faster payout growth; 2. One alternative offers a higher current yield and a projected 13.4% dividend growth rate; 3. Another alternative offers a 7.5% yield with an expected double-digit payout CAGR.
- Super Micro: Not Risk Free, But A Game Changer1. Super Micro has overcome accounting concerns and is poised to thrive with U.S. hyperscalers driving AI data center spending; 2. Despite a sales hit from the 10-K delay, the AI server company guided FY25 revenues to $23.5 to $25.0 billion, with a potential target of $40 billion in FY26; 3. Super Micro raised $700 million via a convertible debt offering, signaling a return in investor confidence.
- Enovix: Very Well Positioned In 2025, I'm Long1. Enovix is a pre-revenue company developing high-performance batteries; 2. The company aims to start mass production in Malaysia by late 2025; 3. Success hinges on achieving 95% battery yields and securing major customers; 4. Despite past misjudgments, the author is bullish on Enovix's long-term potential; 5. The stock is considered high-risk, high-reward due to its reliance on yield targets and production ramp-up.
- Why The Coming Market Correction Will Bring Back Market Timing1. Evidence suggests that the average annual return from stocks over the next 10 years will be very low, prompting an investor shift from buy-and-hold to market timing. 2. Graphs show a high correlation between the Shiller CAPE PE ratio and 10 year market returns; the current ratio of 38 suggests a near-zero price gain in the S&P by 2035. 3. A mixed strategy of 35% buy-and-hold and 35% market timing is proposed, focusing on outperforming stocks and sentiment-based timing.
- Gold Stocks Vs. Bullion: Why The Lag?1. The price of physical gold and the performance of gold mining stocks typically move together, but there are instances where this does not hold. 2. The current gold/silver ratio suggests investors might be unwinding positions to take profits or cut losses. 3. The article discusses the discrepancy between physical gold prices and gold mining stocks.
- Why Microsoft Is The Best Positioned Hyperscaler In 20251. Microsoft's AI revenue has exceeded $13B annually, driven by Azure AI services and Microsoft 365 Copilot; 2. Despite a 29% YoY decline in free cash flow due to increased capex for AI infrastructure, the decline is expected to be temporary; 3. Efficient AI models like DeepSeek's R1 are expected to accelerate enterprise adoption, benefiting Microsoft's top and bottom lines; 4. Microsoft's revenue mix is skewed towards enterprise spending, offering some protection from macroeconomic uncertainty; 5. The company is positioned for a 26% upside with a price target of $515.
- Why I'm Pressing Pause: Downgrading Broadcom To Hold Amid Valuation Concerns1. Broadcom's acquisition of VMware potentially enhances its position in Artificial Intelligence; 2. CEO Hock Tan's strategic move into software positions Broadcom as a comprehensive infrastructure technology company; 3. Broadcom's shift towards a combined hardware-software model differentiates it in a competitive market.
- Apple Could Show Big Correction As iPhone Reality Sets In1. Apple's recent earnings show a 1% YoY decline in iPhone sales, reflecting a lack of excitement for the new iPhone. 2. Greater China revenue has shown a 11% YoY decline, following a 13% YoY decline in the previous quarter. 3. Apple's revenue base has grown by a cumulative 2% over the last three years, while its stock price has increased by over 30%, leading to a higher PE multiple compared to peers like Meta and Alphabet.
February 17
- Dividend Investors, Pay Attention: One Of The Best Dividend Opportunity I've Seen In Years1. A rare dividend opportunity has emerged with strong yield, growth, and resilience; 2. Market conditions, valuation, and long-term fundamentals align to create a compelling case; 3. The author is confident in the risk-reward and considers these picks among the best opportunities in years.
- I Am Loading Up Big Dividends For My Golden Years1. Healthcare costs are projected to grow significantly in 2025; 2. The aging population and rising chronic illnesses are driving healthcare inflation; 3. Income investing provides consistent returns and flexibility in financial planning.
- Nebius Group: Ready To Storm New Peaks1. Nebius Group N.V. is a European AI leader, backed by Nvidia; 2. NBIS's AI-centric cloud platform offers a cost-efficient, vertically integrated stack; 3. Despite market uncertainties and competition, NBIS's partnership with Nvidia and robust fundamentals suggest a 45% upside potential.
- Trump Tariffs: What's Next For Top Semiconductor Stocks?1. The launch of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model, has erased nearly $1T from the stock market, affecting AI and semiconductor stocks. 2. Tariffs on Chinese imports and stricter semiconductor export policies have increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China, posing risks for semiconductor stocks with China exposure. 3. Despite this, some analysts remain bullish on U.S. chipmakers due to the rapid growth in the AI sector.
- AMD: Still A Buy In Nvidia's Shadow1. AMD has declined 45% from its highs in early 2024; 2. Nvidia leads in AI chip performance and ecosystem, but AMD offers better value for money; 3. Considering the market growth rates of AMD's underlying business segments, the company could be undervalued by up to 34%.
- Ferrari: The 2025 Investment Thesis1. Ferrari ended 2024 with strong results, exceeding expectations and providing a positive outlook for 2025; 2. The company's business model is driven by brand desirability and scarcity, with consistent execution and favorable demand/supply ratios; 3. For 2025, Ferrari is expected to achieve higher growth due to new models and non-car segments, including key catalysts like the EV launch and Lewis Hamilton's first year.
- Danaher: Self-Inflicted Pessimism?1. Danaher Corp. has faced market punishment recently, showing resilience with strong margins and impressive FCF despite a tough year; 2. The company's strategic capital allocation suggests long-term value creation despite short-term pessimism; 3. Danaher's bioprocessing segment is showing consistent growth, and the upcoming patent cliff is expected to boost demand for their life science equipment; 4. Valuation analysis indicates the stock is undervalued with significant upside potential as market conditions improve.
- Pfizer: Danuglipron Could Tip The Scale In A Few Years, But For Now, Sell1. I rate Pfizer a sell for the next 18-24 months due to continued headwinds from Medicare Part D redesign and patent expirations. 2. Danuglipron could be a catalyst for a turnaround if late-stage trials succeed in 2025. 3. Short-term, the 6.6% yield and low valuation ratios may attract value investors.
- Occidental Petroleum: 3 Reasons We Prefer The 7% YTM Bonds For Berkshire's Bet1. Occidental Petroleum has disappointed shareholders with acquisitions reducing shareholder returns; 2. Bonds with about 7% YTM look attractive; 3. The rationale for our preference is explained.
- PayPal: A Share Cannibal With Accelerating Momentum (Rating Upgrade)1. PayPal's strategic shift under Alex Chriss focuses on profitable growth by enhancing core strengths, increasing user engagement, and accelerating innovation velocity. 2. Q4 earnings showed mixed results with revenue and EPS beats, but higher OpEx led to market disappointment; while strategic initiatives aim for long-term outperformance. 3. Key initiatives include enhancing checkout experiences, expanding debit and credit offerings, and boosting SMB merchant onboarding to drive user habituation and profitable growth. 4. PayPal's aggressive $15 billion share buyback program and renewed focus on core strengths make it a strong buy with expected positive stock returns.
February 16
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The Trump administration's workforce reduction decision impacts federal employees significantly; 2. The article discusses the potential impact of reciprocal tariffs on global trade; 3. The author, Steven Cress, provides insights on market trends and investment strategies.
- ASML: 2025 Guidance May Have Overlooked An Unlikely But Significant Event1. The article predicts that the US-China military AI competition may lead the US to increase pressure on the Netherlands for stricter export controls. 2. There is a small but significant risk that ASML may lose its DUV export license to China, which could severely impact revenue normalization in this region in 2025. 3. A downward revision to ASML's 2025 guidance could trigger a significant sell-off and push the share price towards the mid-$500 support level. 4. Despite the long-term outlook potentially improving with high NA EUV system sales in 2026 and beyond, the author rates ASML as a strong sell with a 12-month timeframe.
- DraftKings: Incredible Customer Acquisition, Terrible Price (Rating Upgrade)1. DraftKings achieved a significant 'beat and raise' in Q4, driven by new customer acquisition and better sportsbook hold percentages. 2. The company benefits from additional states legalizing sports gambling, a growing iGaming business, and economies of scale. 3. Despite the positive outlook, DraftKings is already trading at an expensive ~28x forward adjusted EBITDA and is priced for perfection.
- QYLD: Old And Out Of Style1. The Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) offers a straightforward buy-write strategy with high income but at the cost of capital gains. 2. Despite its competitive distribution, QYLD has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index and newer competing ETFs in terms of total returns and yield. 3. Newer ETFs like GPIQ and QDTE offer better upside potential and higher returns, making QYLD less attractive for aggressive income investors.