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January 12
- Quantum Stocks, Including Rigetti Computing, Fell After Comment By VIP, But Reactions Were Irrational1. Rigetti Computing and other quantum stocks plummeted after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang suggested that good things were far in the future. 2. Investors need to consider the context of Huang's remarks and remember that these investments are more like angel/venture capital situations than conventional companies. 3. Rigetti is the leading company in the superconducting protocol within quantum computing, which is fast but presents more error challenges. Choosing Rigetti's protocol involves accepting higher risk for greater growth potential. 4. For those who understand quantum computing investing, the author rates Rigetti 'Buy'.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The 2025 markets are experiencing pressure due to the Fed's monetary policy shift; 2. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell on Friday; 3. The global bond selloff pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.74%; 4. Bitcoin's selloff continued despite crypto trends remaining in focus; 5. Tariff threats are intensifying global tensions.
- Why I Am Doubling Down On My Sizable PDI Position1. The PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund's valuation dropped due to the central bank's cautious interest rate outlook, presenting a buying opportunity with a 14% yield. 2. The fund's price correction is seen as temporary, with a premium to NAV narrowing, signaling a market overreaction to delayed rate cuts. 3. The fund's portfolio of rate-sensitive fixed income instruments is poised to benefit from future interest rate cuts, supporting the investment thesis.
- 2 'Must-Buy' Turnaround Plays For 20251. The author avoids turnarounds but invests in high-quality companies with temporary setbacks. 2. Currently, the author is overweight on LVMH and ASML, both facing macroeconomic headwinds but poised for recovery in 2025. 3. LVMH's shares are down due to China's economic slowdown, but strong fundamentals and potential M&A activity make it an attractive buy. 4. ASML, despite export restrictions and slow non-AI recovery, offers strong EPS growth potential, making it a compelling long-term investment.
- Talen Energy: Powering Sustainable Growth1. Talen Energy Corp. has a strong portfolio with a total generation capacity of 10.7 GW; 2. The company has shown remarkable financial turnaround, shifting from a $77M net loss in Q3 2023 to a $168M net income in Q3 2024; 3. Strategic initiatives like asset sales and refinancing have enhanced liquidity and shareholder returns, with a $1B share repurchase program.
- Consolidation Continues1. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has logged net gains during the first five days of the year 47 times. 2. The first five days of January and the 'January Barometer' are statistically notable, but its failure rate as an indicator for bearish outcomes is also noteworthy. 3. While Wall Street analysts continue to expect another bullish return year for stocks, December and January have been rather weak as markets consolidate the gains following the election.
January 11
- REIT Van Winkle: 2 REITs To Own For The Next 20 Years1. REITs like Federal Realty and Realty Income have shown resilience with strong balance sheets and diversified portfolios; 2. Federal Realty, known as a Dividend King, has consistently increased dividends for 57 years; 3. Realty Income offers a well-covered 6.1% dividend yield, making it a solid choice for long-term wealth creation.
- Eli Lilly: Still Much Room To Ride The Weight-Loss Wave1. Eli Lilly's GLP-1 market dominance is supported by superior efficacy and strong manufacturing investments, positioning it as a leader alongside Novo Nordisk with forecasted revenue growth to $75B by 2027. 2. A conservative valuation model estimates Eli Lilly's stock to achieve a 25% CAGR over two years, with a fair price target of $1,200 by January 2027. 3. Key risks include competition from emerging GLP-1 drugmakers and potential delays or setbacks in next-gen oral GLP-1 drugs like Orforglipron, but the stock's 25% margin of safety underpins my rating.
- Rigetti Computing: The Quantum Revolution Is Just Getting Started1. Rigetti Computing is a leading player in full-stack quantum computing, developing quantum computers over the cloud. 2. The company aims to enhance its market position with significant milestones in 2025, including a 36-qubit and 100-qubit system. 3. Quantum computing has a promising market potential, with TAM expected to grow from $1.1B in 2022 to $7.6B in 2027.
- AGNC Investment: Now Is The Time To Be Greedy (Rating Upgrade)1. The author recently expressed caution about AGNC's payout sustainability and high P/TBV ratio amidst bullish Wall Street sentiment. 2. New developments have reduced or removed these concerns, with valuation largely reverting to the mean in terms of P/TBV ratio. 3. The long-short yield spread has turned positive, indicating good odds for it to remain so in the near future.
- Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week Of January 121. This article provides a weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers. 2. It highlights companies that have changed their dividends, those with upcoming ex-dividend dates, and companies with upcoming pay dates. 3. The author mentions additional resources available through The Dividend Kings marketplace service.
- Linde Keeps Its Momentum Alive1. Linde plc is a potential buy with steady growth over 10 years; 2. The industrial gases market is expected to grow significantly due to clean energy and decarbonization; 3. Linde's strong financials and proactive management strategies position it well for future growth.
- Reorganization And Beautiful FCF Growth Make Digital Turbine A Buy1. Digital Turbine, Inc. is undergoing a significant reorganization, exiting legacy platforms to focus on more profitable business lines, promising future free cash flow growth. 2. The company's tools, such as SingleTap and Application Media, enhance app installs and monetization, making it attractive to OEMs and investors. 3. Despite recent revenue declines due to strategic exits, APPS shows strong free cash flow growth and trades at attractive valuation multiples, making it a buy.
- Politics And The Markets 01/11/251. This is a forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha; 2. The comments are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site; 3. The discussion can get very heated, but personal attacks are not allowed.
January 10
- Alibaba Remains In Play With 2025 Underway1. Despite mixed financial results, Alibaba's revenue and net income have grown, justifying its continued 'Buy' rating due to its attractive valuation and growth potential. 2. Taobao and Tmall Group saw revenue growth, but profits declined due to investments in user experience. 3. The Cloud Intelligence Group showed promising growth and profitability.
- USA: Better Alternatives Available (Downgrade)1. Liberty All-Star Equity has underperformed compared to a DIY portfolio using the SPY ETF, confirming the author's 2023 prediction. 2. Some US 'value' managers hold high P/E stocks, making the fund vulnerable to market shocks. 3. The author recommends high-yield alternatives like QDPL and JAAA for better returns. 4. Given the fund's poor historical performance and high valuations, the author advises a relative sell and better-performing alternatives.
- U.S. Rates Heading Deeper Into The Zone Of Interest1. The Federal Reserve has cut the funds rate by 100bp in the current rate cut cycle; 2. The 10-year rate has risen by approximately 100bp over the same period; 3. Long-term SOFR rates are now trading at above neutral valuations, indicating potential for positive carry opportunities.
- Occidental Petroleum: A Top Buffett Stock On Sale1. Warren Buffett has been purchasing Occidental Petroleum shares for years; 2. The stock has a significant discount to Buffett's average cost; 3. Occidental Petroleum has high profitability and commendable growth rates.
- A Wall Of Worry For The World Economy1. The world economy faces significant downside risks, particularly due to a constellation of major economic and geopolitical risks. 2. The main risk in the United States is the potential for Donald Trump to follow through on his economic promises, which could include a spike in import tariffs. 3. This situation poses a significant threat to the troubled and export-intensive Chinese and European economies.
- Politics And The Markets 01/10/251. This is a forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha; 2. It is published every market day; 3. The comments are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site.
January 9
- 100% Payout Cash Flow Kings - 2 Of My Favorite High-Yield Stocks1. Rising interest rates and maturing U.S. debt pose risks to the economy and stock market; 2. Elevated bond yields make the market vulnerable to further increases in long-term bond rates; 3. Inflation remains a critical risk, potentially leading to higher fed funds rates and bond yields, negatively impacting stock prices.
- NIO: High Growth And A Bit Of A Bargain1. NIO's Q3 2024 revenues increased by 7% QoQ to $2.6B, with a gross profit rise of 31.8% YoY, despite a 38% stock price drop. 2. Q4 delivery numbers are promising, with a 72.9% YoY increase in December, aligning with management's guidance and countering bearish arguments. 3. NIO ranks 3rd in the Chinese EV market, benefiting from government subsidies, and aims for long-term profitability through brand positioning and efficiency gains.
- Top 10 Stocks For 20251. Global markets are influenced by geopolitical tensions, inflation, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 2. A data-driven strategy focusing on growth, value, profitability, earnings revisions, and momentum is recommended for 2025. 3. Seeking Alpha's 2024 Top 10 Stocks portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 by 125%.
- Penguin Solutions Earnings: Upgrading To Buy After Fiscal Q1 Surprise1. Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) reported strong Q1 2025 earnings, boosting its stock by over 15% and proving skeptics wrong. 2. The company focuses on AI infrastructure and large-scale data center clusters, positioning itself well for future AI adoption. 3. Despite expected revenue growth moderation in H2 2025, the company is likely to exceed Q2 2025 revenue estimates, supporting a 15x EPS valuation.
- Gorilla Technology: Impressive Growth Vs. Poor Cash Flow Conversion1. The company has a robust revenue and profitability outlook with a large backlog and strong pursuit of multi-million-dollar deals. 2. The cash flow conversion profile is impaired due to high receivables from major government customers. 3. The P/E valuations are at a discount, but distorted by delays in cash flow conversion compared to revenue recognition. 4. Technical analysis shows a bullish trend but at a key resistance area, potentially muted outperformance against the S&P500.
- Overpriced Optimism: Why S&P Global's Valuation Deserves Scrutiny1. S&P Global's current EV/EBITDA multiple of 25 is overly optimistic; 2. Analysts' growth estimates of 12% are likely unrealistic; 3. Rising operational costs and debt could hinder future growth.
- Lockheed Martin: Recession Proof Your Portfolio And Dividends With LMT1. Lockheed Martin provides reliable and growing dividends with a 22-year streak and a current yield of 2.83%, making it an ideal choice for dividend growth investors. 2. The company has a strong capital allocation strategy, including significant share buybacks, resulting in a shareholder yield of 5.25%. 3. Lockheed Martin's robust balance sheet and stable cash flows from government contracts ensure financial stability and consistent shareholder rewards.
- Textron: Buy This Overlooked Aviation, Defense, And Industrial Conglomerate1. Textron Inc. is an undervalued mid-cap conglomerate with strong brand awareness; 2. Its diverse revenue streams include aviation, helicopters, industrial products, and defense systems; 3. The company has solid financial health with a BBB credit rating and consistent share buybacks.
- Rigetti Computing: Huang Pops The Quantum Bubble1. Rigetti Computing's speculative valuation led to a nearly 50% price drop after Nvidia's CEO commented on the distant scalability of quantum computing; 2. The article argues that Rigetti's fundamentals don't justify its valuation; 3. The author estimates a fair value of $595M with a negative margin of safety, recommending avoiding the stock despite short-term momentum.
January 8
- Generational Wealth - Our Favorite Dividend Stocks To Build A Lasting Legacy1. The article highlights three dividend stocks for building generational wealth; 2. These stocks offer stability and consistent income growth; 3. Each stock has a strong, reliable track record; 4. The focus is on long-term investment strategy.