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February 3
- Lam Research: Here's The Price I'll Start Buying At1. Lam Research's Q2-2025 earnings exceeded expectations with strong revenue and EPS growth; 2. The stock's valuation is elevated, but a more attractive entry point could be in the $70-75 range; 3. A potential long-term buying opportunity could arise if the stock's valuation drops closer to historical levels.
- Intel: Excessive Safety Margin1. Intel reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings, with shares surging 3.7% in after-hours trading; 2. The company's Q1'25 revenue outlook missed expectations but only slightly; 3. Intel's valuation remains attractive with a forward P/E ratio of 12X, suggesting a high safety margin.
- Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: Floating Rate Exposure Set To Lower Yield1. Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund has benefited from high interest rates but faces risks as rates are expected to decrease. 2. The fund's strategy focuses on senior secured loans to stable mid-sized businesses and employs leverage to enhance dividends. 3. A significant portion of MSDL's yield is tied to floating rates, which could shrink if the Fed lowers rates, impacting net interest margins.
- Alamos: A Tasty Morsel For Agnico Eagle1. Alamos Gold's robust financials, with a 41% YoY revenue increase and 100% EPS growth, position it as a prime investment candidate. 2. The company's long mine life, low ASIC, and high-quality assets in stable jurisdictions add to its appeal. 3. Agnico Eagle's history of strategic acquisitions and strong financial position make a takeover of Alamos plausible and beneficial.
February 2
- Wall Street Week Ahead1. Investors will be busy with a plethora of U.S. data next week, with the jobs report on Friday being the highlight. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December will be released on Tuesday. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment reading will be released on Friday. Wholesale inflation in the European Union will be released on Wednesday, followed by retail sales on Thursday. 2. Earnings season will continue with notable companies like Alphabet, Palantir Technologies, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, and Qualcomm reporting results. 3. The earnings spotlight includes companies like Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, IDEXX Laboratories, Tyson Foods, and Clorox on Monday, and Alphabet, Merck, PepsiCo, Advanced Micro Devices, and Amgen on Tuesday.
- Alpha Picks Weekly Market Recap1. The market experienced volatility with the 'fear gauge' rising as China's DeepSeek AI challenges Western AI models. 2. Despite early-week dips, indices recovered, with the Nasdaq up 2.66%, S&P 500 up 1.62%, and the Dow up 1.34%. 3. US Treasury yields remained stable, and the Fed held rates, while U.S. GDP growth was slower than expected and PCE rose 2.3% Q/Q.
- Tesla: No Safety Margin1. Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter; 2. Despite solid deliveries and production growth, the stock remains overvalued; 3. BYD surpassed Tesla in global BEV deliveries and has a stronger gross margin profile; 4. The potential slowdown in EV adoption poses a significant risk to Tesla's ambitious delivery targets; 5. Tesla's mixed earnings report and high valuation make it an unattractive investment.
- Baidu: The AI Catalyst I've Been Waiting For Is Finally Here (Rating Upgrade)1. Baidu's expected shift from AI affordability to AI monetization in 2025 justifies upgrading Baidu to a Buy rating. 2. Baidu's AI Cloud and Intelligent Driving businesses, along with the ERNIE bot, are poised for monetization, leveraging strong user acquisition and market share. 3. Despite expected revenue contraction in 2024, Baidu's valuation at 9x 2025 earnings looks attractive, with potential for revenue and earnings growth.
- Coinbase: Market Underestimating A Blockbuster Quarter1. Coinbase is expected to exceed Wall Street revenue estimates by 26% and EPS estimates by 407% for Q4 2024. 2. Consumer volumes surged in Q4 2024, supported by institutional adoption and diversified revenue streams. 3. FASB accounting changes are expected to boost profits by an additional ~$600M. 4. Coinbase's anticipated inclusion in the S&P 500 in March will trigger significant buying from ETFs and mutual funds, driving at least $2.5 billion in demand.
- Permian Resources: Don't Forget Waha Leverage1. Permian Resources faced low price realizations in 2024 due to negative Waha prices; 2. The company's free cash flow could see a significant boost with modest increases in natural gas prices; 3. New pipeline projects in 2025 and 2026 should alleviate capacity issues and improve price realizations.
- February 2025 Monthly1. China unveiled DeepSeek, challenging other advanced language model AIs and questioning the effectiveness of technology curbs; 2. U.S. elites' skepticism and reluctance to replace the UK in international finance indicate the 'Open Door' policy is not ready for prime time; 3. The Russian ruble's 15% appreciation is a distortion, but its GDP weight in BWCI is only 2.4% according to the World Bank.
- S&P 500 Snapshot: See-Saw Week Ends On Sour Note1. The S&P 500 experienced a volatile week with a 1.0% loss from the previous Friday; 2. The U.S. Treasury set the closing yield on the 10-year note at 4.58% and the 2-year note at 4.22%; 3. Volatility was driven by major developments including the DeepSeek threat, the Federal Reserve's decision, big tech earnings, and renewed uncertainty.
- Politics And The Markets 02/02/251. This is a forum for daily political discussion on Seeking Alpha; 2. It is published every market day; 3. The comments are not regulated with the same rigor as the rest of the site.
February 1
- Buy Low, Win Big: 2 Dividend Stocks I'm Buying Hand Over Fist1. The S&P 500 has outperformed global stocks since 1988, especially post-Great Financial Crisis. 2. Goldman Sachs' ISG supports overweighting US stocks due to economic and structural advantages, despite predicting lower future returns. 3. Focus on undervalued dividend growers in North America for market outperformance with minimal risk.
- Buy Land, They Don't Make It Anymore: 3 'Dirt' Cheap Big Dividends And Buybacks1. Land has proven to be an excellent long-term risk-adjusted investment; 2. There are numerous opportunities to buy land at a steep discount right now; 3. Three compelling opportunities are shared, yielding up to 7.3% with big buybacks involved.
- What Moved Markets This Week1. The U.S. stock market closed January with a nearly 3% advance despite a 1% retreat on the last trading day of the month. 2. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's low-cost language model posed a challenge to U.S. tech giants. 3. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady after three consecutive cuts raised inflation concerns. 4. The Q4 earnings season saw major tech companies reporting results.
- Berkshire Hathaway: Tough Comparison Ahead1. Berkshire Hathaway is expected to deliver strong performance in 2024; 2. Future earnings will face tough comparisons with flat EPS projection between 2025 and 2027; 3. The company has halted share repurchases and holds a record cash position, signaling valuation risks and lack of deployment opportunities.
- DeepSeek Crashes The AI Party: Story Break, Change Or Shift?1. DeepSeek's sudden entry into the AI conversation has the potential to alter the AI narrative; 2. The proliferation of potential AI applications has increased the market for AI products and services; 3. The author's early investment in Nvidia and other Mag Seven stocks has allowed him to capitalize on the AI boom over the past two years.
- Cleveland-Cliffs: Don't Bite Off More Than You Can Chew1. The article discusses Cleveland-Cliffs' impressive financial performance and strategic initiatives; 2. It highlights the company's strong revenue growth, robust market position, and innovative product pipeline; 3. The author emphasizes the company's ability to navigate challenges and deliver shareholder value.
- Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week Of February 21. This article provides a weekly summary of dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers, including companies that have changed their dividends, upcoming ex-dividend dates, and upcoming pay dates. 2. It highlights the limitations of the monthly Dividend Champions list and the need for regular updates. 3. The author, Justin Law, mentions his background in chemistry and finance, and his role as a contributor to The Dividend Kings investing group.
- Microsoft: Earnings Beat Overshadowed By AI Spending And Valuation Concerns1. Microsoft's Q2 2025 results beat estimates with 12% revenue and 10% EPS growth YoY, driven by strong cloud and AI performance. 2. Concerns arise over Microsoft's $80 billion CAPEX plan for 2025, questioning its effectiveness in building a sustainable competitive advantage in AI. 3. Valuation appears stretched, with a target price of $394 assigned, maintaining a 'Hold' rating.
January 31
- RTX Stock: A Winner To Buy1. RTX reported strong Q4 results with double-digit sales growth across all channels; 2. The company achieved 11% organic sales growth for the year with significant profit increases; 3. RTX's 2025 guidance includes 4-5% organic sales growth and strong free cash flow.
- Vertiv: AI Factory Construction Is Accelerating Top-Line Growth1. Vertiv is guiding a strong outlook for eFY25 with accelerated top-line growth paired with improved margins; 2. The company's strong backlog, partnerships, and expansion in liquid cooling and modular solutions position it for robust growth; 3. Management forecasts global data center footprint to grow at a 24% CAGR through 2028.
- XDTE Vs. SPYT, Which 0DTE ETF To Pick?1. SPYT and XDTE ETFs both implement 0DTE call strategies on the S&P 500, with SPYT using call spreads and XDTE using slightly OTM calls. 2. XDTE has outperformed SPYT since March 2024, offering superior total returns and higher distribution yields. 3. Despite XDTE's superior strategy, caution is advised due to extended market valuations, with SPYT rated as a hold.
- DeepSeek Didn't Hurt Costco - But Its Valuation Might1. Costco's efficient business model and high customer loyalty drive consistent shareholder value, but its current valuation is too high for a buy rating. 2. Despite robust growth and resilience to economic conditions, Costco's forward price-to-earnings ratio implies a low earnings yield for a couple of years, making it less attractive for new investments. 3. Potential growth paths include international expansion and e-commerce, but challenges in adapting the business model to new regions exist.
- Government Spending Distorts GDP1. Government expenditure and investment have grown annually by 4.08% since July 2022, while the underlying economy has grown at a pace of 2.78%. This has led to an inflated Real GDP growth rate of 2.98%. 2. When government spending was reduced from October 2009 to January 2014, Real Private GDP outperformed Real GDP significantly. 3. The article discusses the impact of government spending on the overall economic growth and GDP figures.
- ServiceNow: The Start Of A Deeper Correction (Rating Downgrade)1. ServiceNow's stock dropped more than 10% after reporting a rare earnings miss in Q4; 2. The company's revenue growth slowed to 21% y/y, with a further deceleration expected in FY25; 3. Fundamental issues include AI potentially reducing demand for seat-based products and aggressive headcount growth limiting profit expansion.
January 30
- Dividends And Dynamite: 10 High-Yield Blue-Chip Bargains You Don't Want To Miss1. The 'Dividend and Dynamite' approach combines ultra-yielding blue chips with top-tier growth stocks for robust current income and strong long-term appreciation. 2. This strategy minimizes exposure to dividend cutters and overpriced stocks, reducing volatility and boosting returns. 3. The 10 selected blue-chip stocks yield 3.4%, are undervalued by 24%, have a 39% upside potential in the next year, and offer a 21.4% CAGR long-term return potential.
- Nvidia: DeepSeek Could Trigger GPU Commoditization1. The rise of cost-effective AI models like DeepSeek's R1 suggests a potential for GPU commoditization; 2. Chinese lab challenges NVIDIA's dominance with high efficiency on lower-grade GPUs; 3. Increased competition and innovative training techniques may pressure NVIDIA's high margins and demand for top-tier GPUs.
- AMD: Why I Doubled My Position After DeepSeek Sell-Off1. AMD shares fell to a 1-year low due to DeepSeek's AI chat assistant news; 2. I doubled my AMD position due to strong demand for AMD's AI products in 2025 and AMD's gains in the AI accelerator market; 3. AMD's aggressive AI investments are paying off with significant Data Center revenue growth and a near-50% discount to its historical P/E ratio.