1. Inflation remains a significant concern for 2025, with potential upside risks from tariffs and housing prices; 2. Improving labor market indicators suggest economic strength but complicate the Fed's rate-cutting plans; 3. Market expectations have shifted, pricing in fewer rate cuts in 2025 and potential rate increases, reflecting a resilient economy and sticky inflation; 4. Multiple contraction may finally hit the S&P 500, leading to a 25% decline.