1. The author downgrades British American Tobacco's rating from strong buy to hold due to slower-than-expected shift to non-combustible products; 2. Combustibles still account for 80% of BAT's revenue, with a significant decline in volumes expected over the next decade; 3. The current high dividend yield is at risk, as 10-year returns underperform the S&P500 and peers like Philip Morris and Japan Tobacco.