1. The S&P 500 surged 12.5% due to trade war de-escalation and strong Q1 earnings, but the rally's sustainability is questioned; 2. Risks include temporary tariff cuts, economic uncertainty with a 45% recession probability, and predicted earnings deceleration; 3. Companies increasingly guide spending below consensus, signaling challenges to EPS growth, advising selective equity investments in firms with strong moats or catalysts.