1. The article predicts that the US-China military AI competition may lead the US to increase pressure on the Netherlands for stricter export controls. 2. There is a small but significant risk that ASML may lose its DUV export license to China, which could severely impact revenue normalization in this region in 2025. 3. A downward revision to ASML's 2025 guidance could trigger a significant sell-off and push the share price towards the mid-$500 support level. 4. Despite the long-term outlook potentially improving with high NA EUV system sales in 2026 and beyond, the author rates ASML as a strong sell with a 12-month timeframe.